Christmas Eve

Christmas Eve Storm

Wind

87 out of the 88 counties in Ohio are under some form of a wind alert for this evening and overnight. The only County that is not under anything is Williams County in extreme Northwest Ohio. There are WIND ADVISORIES out for everyone except North-Central Ohio and those along the lake shore, where HIGH WIND WARNINGS have been issued. Wind gusts will range from 40-50mph and could top 60-65 in Northern Ohio. Scattered tree and power line damage is likely with winds of this magnitude.

Rain

A line of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, will traverse across the state this evening. The line should move through the whole State from about 3pm in the west and clear out by 8pm in the far east.  There is a chance of some isolated severe wind gusts with this line and that would suggest gusts topping 58mph. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a MARGINAL threat for damaging winds this evening. Total rainfall will generally be around .50" with a few areas seeing more than that.

Temperatures

We will spike all the way up into the upper 50's to lower 60's this afternoon and then crash all the way back into the 30's overnight after the cold front comes through. Friday and Saturday will not be all that cold with temperatures in the 40's and 50's, but that will the warmest weather for a long time as winter looks to take hold. New Years will be a very cold day across much of the Country!

Enjoy your Christmas! Let it rain?

You Can Dream All You Want

Christmas Storm

The possibility of a White Christmas here in Ohio appears to be slowly slipping away. The storm that will move through here tomorrow and Wednesday will bring a lot of rain and gusty winds, but the moisture should move out before temperatures drop below freezing. Right now I am thinking a few flurries or light snow showers will be the most snow we see Christmas Day. The only exception might be the northeast corner of the State where lake-effect snows may kick in. Air travel will still be heavily impacted on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with very gusty winds across the Midwest and Northeast. This will also make for some rough flights across much of the country.

Christmas to New Years

The pattern looks to become very active with multiple storms moving across the country between Christmas and New Years and there is the potential for one or more of them to be snow makers across the Buckeye State. It also looks to become MUCH colder as we head into 2015 with a chance at sub-zero wind chills at some point around New Years Day.


If we manage to get some snow on the ground following Christmas Day, it would not be a surprise. We have had several snow events in the days following Christmas the past few years. In Dec. 2012 we received over 10" of snow between Christmas and New Years, but we did not have a White Christmas. Dec. 2013 was exceptionally warm leading up to Christmas Day with highs around 70 on the 21&22, but was followed by cold and snow heading into the new year. Although it is disappointing, White Christmases are NOT very common here in Central Ohio and it looks like this year will be no exception.

Travel Troubles

Christmas Week Storm

For those who have to travel this Christmas Season, expect to see widespread delays and cancellations at airports and heavy traffic on the roadways. A MAJOR storm system will impact the Eastern United States starting on Tuesday. This storm will affect nearly every state east of the Mississippi River! Most of the storm will be a heavy rain event, however, areas in Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and parts of Ohio could mix with snow and a few areas could pick up some minor accumulations from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The winds around this storm will be another big story as gusts topping 40mph will be common in the Midwest and Northeast. This will make for some rough flights and can lead to delays across much of the country. The Eastern US is not alone in the rough weather either as the West is getting bombarded with heavy rain and mountain snows. With so much unsettled weather at this time of year, the delays could be a nightmare. Be sure to check with your airline regarding any delays or cancellations.

Christmas to New Years and Beyond

The details are not available at this point, but I will say this; get ready for a wild pattern that is full of COLD, SNOW and FUN! The pattern looks to evolve into a very harsh winter pattern that will take us through the end of the year and continue into the first part of January. Right now the models are painting some extremely cold air for the entire Eastern two-thirds of the Nation. Stay Tuned!

Safe Travels!

White Christmas?

December 18-22

Between now and next Monday, not much will be happening here in the Buckeye State. The storm that had the potential to impact us this weekend appears it will never get its act together and remain weak and to our south. Extreme Southern Ohio might see some stray flurries, but that would be all from this system. *I am keeping my eye on the short-term models as they are trying to paint a brief period of light snow right along the I-70 corridor this afternoon and evening. Nothing in the way of accumulation, but just keep a heads up for the potential for some light snow during the evening rush today*

December 23-27

The all important Christmas forecast is proving to be quite the challenge. The models continue to be all over the place with their handling of a storm system next week. Compared to yesterdays runs, the models have shifted the storm a little further east and less intense. They continue to start us out as rain here in Ohio and ending as some gusty snow showers in the evening Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The models are continuing to insist, however, that the system becomes stationary in Canada keeping us windy with scattered snow flurries and showers for a couple of days. The details of this storm will not be known for several more days and based on what the models were showing for this weekend just a few days ago, and compare it to what is actually going to happen, you can understand why I am hesitant to believe these forecasts! Also, even though snow may be falling on Christmas Day, it will not be considered a White Christmas by the National Weather Service unless there is at least an inch of snow on the ground.

December 27-January 2

The long-range forecasts indicating that the Christmas week system could be the first to signal a major pattern change. The flip back to brutal cold and stormy weather across the Central and Eastern United States appears to be likely for the end of this year and into 2015. I we manage to get any snow cover around here, the cold will be made much worse as the snow cover can act as a refrigerator. But regardless of snow, it appears highly likely that the end of 2014 will be much below normal in the temperature department.

HAVE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS! 

Snow Threats

This Week

Well, at the moment I am not a very happy camper. The models have turned away from the stronger storm scenario for this weekend which drives the precipitation further to the south. Since the storm has still not made it into the central Plains, it is still not 100% known what it will do, but the models seem to be in agreement. Until it gets into the Plains, I will not definitively say how much snow will fall and where.

Christmas Week

The models are in very good agreement for next week. As of right now, it appears that a major storm will develop early next week and then track north through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. If we were to take the current runs of the forecast models literally, here in the State of Ohio we would start off as some rain and wind for  Christmas Eve day. As the storm really cranks up, colder air would be pulled in, and it could be scenario where Cincinnati changes over to snow before Cleveland believe it or not, but the entire State would change over to all snow and wind over night Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. *Despite model agreement, this is still a week away and the details are still far from being set in stone. What we need to take away from this is that someone will likely see a snowstorm on or around Christmas and it will likely have MAJOR travel impacts.*

Summary

• This weekends "storm" has the greatest potential of bringing light snow to Southern Ohio, with a lower risk the further north you live. 
• Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature a major storm, will it be rain or snow is yet to be determined! (Fingers crossed for some snow!)
• Cold weather is on its way for Christmas week and beyond. 

What Now...?

Where We Have Been

After a November that ranked as a top 15 coldest November for the State of Ohio, December has been relatively benign. We have seen what is known as a "zonal flow" for the first part of the month and that helps to bring in air from the Pacific and give us clouds and about average temperatures. As of right now, December is averaging above normal rainfall (+0.54") and slightly below normal temperatures (-0.4) here in Central Ohio. We have seen just a trace of snow on one day this month compared to the 4.1" of snow in November. By this date last December, Columbus had already had 9" of snow! This weather pattern was expected, however, so do not worry. WINTER WILL COME!

Where We Are Going

The pattern is shaping up to be what looks like a very active end to the month. The forecast models have been showing this for several runs now. There is still a great amount of uncertainty going forward as each storm system will prove to have its own challenges. However, the models seem to agree that we will begin to get colder with an active storm track during the week of Christmas and continuing into January. This pattern change also fits with what was expected by the analog packages, which look at similar patterns in years past. This year is looking a lot like 2002 when we had a mild and calm December across much of the country, but a major snowstorm around Christmas was the start of a much colder and snowier pattern. I am not saying a snowstorm will hit on Christmas, but we will have to pay close attention to the weather over the coming weeks as we start to really ramp things up. A white Christmas is still on the table for many people across the United States, so don't give up hope! After a brief break from our early winter weather, things will turn much colder and snowier just in time for Christmas and New Years! 

If there is any type of winter weather threat, I will let you know as soon as I can. I will closely monitor the latest forecasts and update things accordingly. When we get a little closer, I will be able to more accurately depict who will see a white Christmas and I will also do a larger scale forecast for those of you traveling this holiday season. 

This is just my little soapbox reminder: a white Christmas isn't a necessity to celebrate Jesus' birth! :) 

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Freezing Rain Advisory

Slick Morning Commute On Tap

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY for much of Central and Southern Ohio. The advisory will begin at 7am and continue to 1pm tomorrow morning. A light glaze of ice is expected and this will lead to hazardous driving conditions and create slick spots on sidewalks. Freezing rain is the most dangerous form of wintry precipitation since it will coat virtually everything in ice. Be prepared for travel delays in the morning and the potential for numerous accidents. The last time we had a light glaze of ice here in Columbus was the morning of the Indiana vs. Ohio State football game and it resulted in many road closures and a traffic headache. It might also be a good idea to pull your wipers off of the windshield, if you park outside, to avoid them freezing to the windshield.

PLEASE DRIVE WITH CAUTION IN THE MORNING! 

I will update you if anything changes 

Active Wind Alerts

Wind Advisories and High Wind Watches

The National Weather Service offices in Pittsburgh, Northern Indiana, Charleston and Wilmington have issued WIND ADVISORIES for their entire service areas for wind gusts of 45-50mph. This includes the entire State of Ohio, with the exception of the NWS in Cleveland counties. The NWS in Cleveland has issued a HIGH WIND WATCH for wind gusts of 50-60mph.

All of Ohio will have the potential for wind damage to trees and power lines from the mid-morning hours into the evening on Monday.

I will continue to update things on this developing situation. It is POSSIBLE that High Wind Warnings get issued, and that would signify widespread damaging winds. I will let know as soon as things evolve.  

Here is an image of the current NWS alerts in the Ohio Valley Region. 

Windy and Wet

Sunday and Monday

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning will feature moderate to heavy rain. A widespread .5-1" amounts are expected across Ohio. As a powerful cold front crosses the region on Monday, winds will pick up during the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service is currently thinking that gusts up to 45mph are possible and that wind headlines may be required. Some forecast models are suggesting that some isolated gusts upwards of 50-55mph are possible. Winds of this magnitude can lead to scattered power outages, tree damage and minor property damage. If you got a head start and got your Christmas decorations up, be sure to secure any light weight or loose items.

Criteria for wind headlines from the NWS in Wilmington Ohio...
Wind Advisory=Sustained winds of 31-39MPH (for one hour) or frequent gusts of 46-57MPH

High Wind Warning=Sustained wind of 40+MPH (for one hour) or frequent gusts of 58+MPH

Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day

As we move into the busiest travel week of the year, the weather becomes a hot topic. You may have already heard that SOME forecast models are hinting at the potential for an East Coast storm during the peak travel times. This is far from a sure thing and will need to be fine tuned as we get closer. If you are planning to travel in the Eastern States during the holiday, be sure to stay up to date on the latest information regarding this possible storm. Here in Ohio, we will turn wintry again just in time for Thanksgiving. Temperatures will dip back into the 30's and snow flurries/showers will be possible.


I will provide updates on this weeks storm as needed.

Have a HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Snowfall Verification

How Did I Do?

I have drawn an approximation of the actual snow totals from our first snow storm to compare them to my snowfall forecast. 

Here was my forecast issued on 11/14/14

 An approximation of actual snow totals 

Overall, the axis of heaviest snow shifted a few miles to the northwest putting the I-71 corridor in the middle of the 3-5" snow totals. Southeastern Ohio stayed mainly rain during the duration of the storm. For my first ever custom snow forecast, I think this was a success. That is pretty close from a few days out. What do you think? 

Winter Storm Update Part II

Where We Go From Here

The snow is starting to wind down and will tapper off to a few scattered snow showers by the afternoon. Many areas that were under winter weather alerts have received 2-5" of snow. This was a very heavy wet snow which has led to some scattered power outages and tree damage. As the snow moves off to the east, a blast of arctic air will move in and drop our temperatures down into the lower 20's and 10's by this evening. Gusty winds around 20-30mph will help to usher in this air mass and will lead to wind chills near and just below 0. By tomorrow morning, wind chills could be approaching minus 5-10 and Wednesday morning could have readings of minus 10 as well. This is going to be a real shock to the system and is very unusual for this early in the season. Our high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 10's tomorrow and that will set a record for a low maximum temperature. Bottom line, it is going to be cold and breezy. More tree damage and scattered power outages are possible given the gusty winds. Also, watch for roads to re-freeze this evening and continue to have slick spots tomorrow morning.



After the official snowfall reports come in, I will post a map of the snow totals and compare it to my forecast. 

STAY WARM!

Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alerts Have Been Issued 

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings for Central and Southwestern Ohio. The NWS in Cleveland has issued winter weather advisories for Northeastern Ohio. The NWS in Pittsburgh has also put out winter weather advisories for Eastern Ohio.

Here are images of the latest alerts that have been issued. The blue are WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and the pink are WINTER STORM WARNINGS

NWS Cleveland

NWS Pittsburgh

NWS Wilmington

Timing and Amounts 

The timing on most of the alerts is from midnight Tonight through the early afternoon on Monday. The only reason Southwestern Ohio is under a warning is because they have a lower criteria for snowfall to warrant a warning. The heaviest snows will be centered along and just northwest of the I-71 corridor with 3-5" expected. Further north and west, about 1-3", and the far southeastern areas will likely see an inch or less since rain will mix in for the majority of the event.

Monday Morning Commute 

I have been pointing to the Monday AM commute for some time now, and it appears that the worst of the storm will significantly impact the drive to school and work. I will not be surprised to see some outlying districts issuing delays or even calling off school. In the bigger cities (Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton) it is less likely that school will be called off given more resources to clear the streets. Regardless, this will be a significant snowfall and it will be made worse since it is the first one of the season. Remember that it is State law to have your headlights on when your windshield wipers are on, this helps other drivers see you better. Increase your following distance and decrease your speed. Just exercise common sense and we will get through this storm safely. Be safe tomorrow morning!!

After

After the storm moves out, we will have exceptionally cold weather. Tuesday will feature highs, Statewide, of 16-21 degrees! Those temperatures will threaten a lot of records and will allow for wind chills to remain in the single digits all day and even dip below zero at night. Depending on snow cover, lows could approach the lower single digits on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Wind chills could approach advisory criteria for a time early Wednesday morning as they approach minus 10!!! This is an exceedingly rare event for November and will likely set many records for cold.

I will continue to update things as they become available

Snow Storm Update

November Snow Storm

Timing

The main impacts across the Buckeye State will begin late Sunday night and continue until about noon on Monday. 

Impacts

The Monday morning commute will likely be a slow one as roads could become snow covered and slick. And again, depending on the consistency of the snow, some tree limbs could break if enough snow accumulates on the leaves (bradford pear trees are basically the only trees with leaves still on them here in Central Ohio). This could also have an economic impact on city and state budgets as we get off to another early start to winter. 

Accumulations

I do not have any changes to my snowfall forecast. My goal in issuing snowfall maps is to change them as little as possible. I will try not to issue any accumulation forecasts until I am confident enough to stand by them. I do not believe that it is helpful or fair to constantly change a snowfall forecast and then say I was right after the fifth adjustment. If I feel that I have made a significant error, then I will adjust the maps, otherwise I will let the storm play out and see how close I am. 

As always, I will continue to provide updates on any changes to the forecast and let you know as soon as any alerts are issued. 

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast Map

This is my current snowfall forecast for the event coming Sunday night into Monday morning. The morning commute will likely be slow with the first significant snow of the season. I expect at least a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for this event and I will let you know as soon as they come out. 

If the snow is a heavy wet snow, then any trees that still have leaves could experience some stress and may lose some limbs. However, this would only be a concern in areas that receive approximately 3"+ of wet snow.

I will continue to update things as they become available.

Weekend Snowfall Update

The Snow is Coming

Confidence is growing in regards to a measurable snowfall this weekend. The amount of snow is still a bit uncertain, but I have put together a map of the probabilities for certain areas to receive at least an inch or more.

The timing on the heaviest snow will be Sunday night into Monday morning. I still think it would be a good idea to prepare for a slower morning commute on Monday.

I am going to try something new this year for winter snowfall forecasts. I will issue a storm total forecast map before each snow event and then I'll post a map of what actually happens after the storm to compare my forecasts to the actual outcome. I hope this is helpful and it can help to hold me accountable when I make mistakes to improve my accuracy in the future. 

I will likely issue my first ever snowfall forecast map later tonight. 

Snow Chances Are Increasing

Potentially Snowy Weekend

The cold temperatures have arrived and I am now focusing my attention towards a system that could bring us some snow accumulation.

 Here is the latest information...

• As of tonight, areas along and east of I-71 stand the best chance to see measurable snowfall this weekend. 
• Areas along and south of the Ohio River could change over to or mix with rain for a time which would cut down on any snow totals. 
• Models are still varying on the intensity of the storm which will have large implications on our weather. If the storm is stronger or tracks just 50-100 miles east or west of its current forecast track, then snow amounts could go up or down accordingly.
• At this time I am seeing enough model agreement to say that snow is a good bet, but it is still too early to say just how much will fall. 
• The timing on the heaviest snow is currently forecast for Sunday evening into the overnight hours and into early Monday morning. There could also be a brief period of lighter snow on Saturday afternoon and evening, but little to no accumulation is expected with that. 

Tomorrow I will have a better idea as to how much snow will fall and a better idea on timing. As of now, start considering allowing more time to get to school and work for Monday morning because we all know how the first snow of the season goes (it always seems to catch drivers off guard). I will update you tomorrow on the new developments regarding our first snow event of the season. 

Take care and embrace the winter weather, it's not going anywhere anytime soon! 

Brutal Cold IS Coming

Who's Ready for Winter?!?

Timing

An arctic cold front will cross the Buckeye State tomorrow evening/night, bringing with it some breezy conditions and some rain showers. Wednesday will have highs in the lower 40's, but Thursday and Friday will have highs only making it into the mid to upper 30's.

There may be a brief break in the worst cold on Saturday with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's, but another storm will likely move through some time late in the weekend or early in the week that will drop temperatures back even further to the lower 30's for highs! During the entire period, lows will be in the 20's and next week could feature lows into the 10's.

Snow Chances

The models are still flipping back and forth on different ideas for snowfall. It is still way too early to pin down any possible accumulations given the great deal of uncertainty regarding the strength and track of any storm that does develop. That being said, the models are consistent in bringing some snowfall over the next 10 days so we will have to wait and see how that all plays out.

Ohio State vs. Minnesota 

If you plan to travel up to Minneapolis this weekend to watch the Buckeyes play, be prepared for bitterly cold weather. Temperatures will start out in the upper single digits to around 10 degrees in the morning on Saturday, and rise to the mid 10's by kickoff (it is an 11am local time kickoff). By the end of the game, temperatures will only rise to the lower 20's. The entire game will have wind chills in the lower single digits and even below zero for the first half of the game. The fans and players need to prepare for some dangerously cold air that we have not seen for several months.

I will continue to update you on this arctic blast as it evolves.

How Low Can We Go?

Fall Did Not Stick Around For Long!

Cold Week Ahead

Here in the Buckeye State, our arctic invasion gets underway Tuesday night next week. A powerful cold front will cross Ohio and drop temperatures to below freezing by Wednesday morning. This front will be an all rain event with a few flurries possibly behind it, but nothing substantial in terms of snow. The big story will be the brutally cold weather for early to mid November. Our high temperatures in Central Ohio will stay in the 30's for several days and drop into the low 20's each night. This will lead to a several day stretch of 15-25 degrees below normal temperatures. Highs in the upper 30's are average for the middle of January here in Central Ohio. The bulk of next week will certainly feel like winter!!

Snow Chances

There are not any guarantees when it comes to snowfall at this point. Many models are hinting at the possibility during the week of the 16th. That is still too far out to definitively say who will see snow and how much. With the amount of cold that will be in place, it is possible that snow could make an appearance, but that will have to be ironed out in the days to come. Folks that live in the lake-effect snow belts will see some heavy snow totals over 6" off of Lake Erie and 1-3 feet could fall in Michigan's lake-effect snow belts. The lake-effect snow, as always, will be localized and vary greatly over short distances.

Week of Nov. 16-22

The models are hinting at another reinforcing shot of cold air during this time period. A model forecast from this far out is liable to change frequently, but they have been fairly consistent in insisting on more cold air. To give you an idea of how cold they think we will get, the GFS (American Model) shows wind chills -5 to 5 degrees on a couple of mornings and the European model actually agrees. I am NOT saying that this will happen, but that is an extreme scenario for the models to be printing out at this time of year. As we get closer to that time I will be able to better forecast just how cold it will be. What I can say with confidence right now is, November will be extremely cold!

I will continue to update you on this cold outbreak and keep you up to date on any possible pre-thanksgiving snow chances!

Brutal Cold Outbreak

Thursday 11/6 - Tuesday 11/11

We will have several storm systems moving through the area over the next several days. Each will bring some light rain with the potential for flurries on the tail end of the precipitation. Temperatures will bump up ahead of the storms and drop behind each front. We will essentially alternate between 50's and 40's every other day. 

Winter?

By the middle of next week the entire Great Lakes and Northeast regions will be feeling the chill. The potential exists for record challenging cold to overspread the area starting on Wednesday the 12th and could last for several days. In early to mid November, we should be in the middle 50's for high temperatures, but this arctic outbreak will feature highs in the mid to upper 30's! Lows will also drop into the lower 20's several nights in a row and some outlying areas and parts of northern Ohio could even see some 10's! This cold outbreak will be significant and give us an early start to winter. At this time there are not any significant snow events showing up in the models, but I will update you if that changes. The classic lake-effect areas to the south and east of the Great Lakes could see some impressive snow totals from what should be a classic lake-effect set-up. 

This is just a heads-up for next weeks frigid air and I will provide more details in the days to come. 

Winter Weather Update

It appears that some light snow showers will occur across central Ohio Friday night into Saturday morning. A very light dusting is possible on grassy surfaces, but not much more than that. In western Ohio and northeastern Ohio, it is possible that a little more than a dusting occurs. The rain will change to snow earlier in the western part of the state and the northeastern counties will have Lake Erie to enhance the snowfall. Central Ohio will be in a kind of donut hole where the precipitation could end before we get cold enough for higher snow totals.

The mountains of West Virginia will get hammered by the snow. The highest peaks could receive upwards of a foot of snow and even eastern Kentucky is under WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for 1-4" of snow! This is not unusual for the mountains, but eh valleys could pick up 1-2" and that is rare for this time of the year. Believe it or not, the snow will stretch all the way down to the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee!

Here in Ohio, our growing season will come to an end this weekend with temperature dropping into the 20's for an extended period of time. This is considered a hard freeze and will kill whatever plant life is still alive. That means no more mowing! Yeah!

Temperatures will rebound next week, but will remain near or slightly below the seasonal average.

Enjoy the early taste of winter this weekend and Go Bucks!

Update on a Potentially Wintry Weekend

Another Snowy Halloween?!?!

The models are beginning to come into some more agreement in terms of what happens this weekend. It is still a few days away and some of the details still need to be ironed out.

What We Know

It is nearly a guarantee that we will have the coldest weather of the season, so far, Friday through Sunday. Low temperatures will dip all the way down into the mid 20's for Saturday morning and Sunday morning. This will end the growing season, but it won't impact the crops since they are already mature.

What We Do Not Know

As is the case with every winter event, the location and amount of snow is still uncertain. This is a very difficult thing to forecast because minor changes in the temperatures, track and intensity of the system will greatly impact who get what, and how much they get. Currently I am leaning toward at least snow falling during Friday night into Saturday morning. Due to the time of the year and recent warmth, road conditions should remain only wet. Any minor accumulations that do occur would be on grassy and elevated surfaces. The current spectrum of possibilities, in my opinion, would look like this...

Low end of snowfall potential                                                     High end of snowfall potential
Flurries and no accumulation ---------------------------------------> 1" with isolated 2"

I would be surprised if we don't see any snow, and a widespread trace amount seems quite likely.

I will continue to update you as I receive new information.

Expect a Cold Start to November

This Weekend and Early Next Week 

So far, Port Columbus has recorded 14 days with measurable rain in the month of October. We will get a brief break in the unsettled weather this weekend before the next system rolls through here on Tuesday. High temperatures are well above normal today and will be in the mid-upper 70's on Monday and Tuesday. A weak front will cross through the area tonight which will drop highs back into the low-mid 60's for Sunday, however, it will be sunny tomorrow. The main front will cross through here on Tuesday afternoon and will bring the threat of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the entire state. Widespread rainfall of less than a half inch will be likely with a few isolated spots getting a little bit more. It will be a gusty day before the front arrives as well. 

Halloween Forecast 

Things will get interesting by the end of the week around here. Highs will be in the 50's on Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Many communities will trick-or-treat on Thursday night and that will definitely be the best night to do so. It will be chilly withs lows in the upper 30's to low 40's state-wide, but it will be dry. Friday will be cold and damp with rain showers and highs staying in the 40's. The models are trying to hint at some snowflakes around here by Friday night and into Saturday. 

Next Weekend Forecast Challenges

There is great agreement amongst the models in terms of the temperatures. It is likely that we will see temperatures staying in the mid to lower 40's on Saturday and Sunday and low temperatures dropping into the lower 30's to middle 20's! This has the potential be the coldest air mass of the season and will deliver us a killing freeze to officially end the growing season. Where the models disagree is whether or not snow will be a factor. The two major models (GFS and ECMWF) both suggest snow will be falling, but the amount is still uncertain. The GFS thinks that we will only see flurries and no real accumulations, however, the ECMWF is more bullish and tries to put down 1-2" in Central Ohio and more than 2" in Northeastern Ohio. It also shows a healthy snowstorm in the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania with several inches in those spots. Due to the level of cold air with this system, we should see the first lake-effect event of the season in the usual snow belts of Northeastern OH. 

*****I want to stress that this is a forecast that is GOING to change as we get closer to the event. There is a high degree of certainty for the cold temperatures, but the locations and amounts of snow will take some time to pin down. Many factors will impact whether we can get snow out of this system, but, I wanted to let you know what is on the table. I will update you on any further developments and any new information I receive. Stay Tuned! 

Winter Came Early!

Snow on October 4th?

Many people in Central Ohio saw snowflakes on the first Saturday morning of October! The Port Columbus Airport (CMH) recorded a trace amount of snow and confirmed that the flakes were indeed flying! This makes for an extremely short time between snowflakes for the year since our last snow fell on April 15, 2014! This beats last years short snow-less time by several weeks. In 2013, at CMH the last snow of the spring was April 1 and the first snow of fall came on October 23. Two years in a row with April and October snows is not a record but it is uncommon for us to have such short times between snowfalls.

Another form of precipitation that fell on Saturday was graupel. This is often mistaken as hail, however, it is formed completely different. You will also notice that graupel is soft unlike hail and is always small (pea size or smaller). Graupel doesn't cause damage that large hail can cause and the graupel occurs when the atmosphere is very cold at low levels. When hail forms it is lifted up very high into a thunderstorm where it can get into the cold temperatures of the atmosphere and freeze. This pattern is repeated until the updraft can no longer support the ice ball. With graupel, the snow flakes never have the opportunity to melt all the way. This forms a small ice pellet, similar to sleet, that is soft with a small outer shell.

Graupel Formation Image

Hail Formation Image

What Now?

As we continue into October, the cold shots should become more intense with time. I do not think this is our last encounter with snow for this month and some forecasts suggest that winter could get off to an early start in the coming months. Our Fall foliage here in Ohio should peak between the 10th-20th depending on where you are in the state. Expect a lot of ups and downs this month in regards to the temperature. At this time of year air masses are very progressive and don't tend to hold for very long. That being said, when all is said and done, I do expect October to end colder than normal for the entire month. I hope you enjoyed the snow and look forward to more to come because I sure do!! 

Random Update

Today-Tuesday (9/21 to 9/23)

A fairly potent cold front has crossed central Ohio today and has knocked our temperatures down a few degrees and made for a windy afternoon and evening. Winds have frequently gusted over 30mph this afternoon with a few isolated gusts as high as 45mph possible as we go through the rest of the evening. Temperatures will continue to fall and bottom out in the mid 40's tonight and only recover to the low 60's to upper 50's tomorrow afternoon. Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning are likely to be the coldest of the season bottoming out in the low 40's in Columbus to the mid-upper 30's in the usual cold spots and outlying communities. A frost is not likely with this cold shot which is good news for farmers and will make for later frost than past years.

Wednesday-Saturday

This week will be a text book example of September in Ohio. Temperatures in the upper 70's to lower 80's and blue skies each day. This mild and dry spell should slow the growth of our lawns and quickly dry out crops in time to harvest. There are also no major weather disturbances in the near term forecast. Beyond the 7 day outlook the models become quite unclear as to what will happen. Some forecasts include the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, this would potentially have a large impact on our weather as tropical systems have been known to bring heavy rains and high winds to our area. That is something we will have to watch for, but is quite unlikely at this time. 

Fall

You may have noticed a few leaves starting to show some color over the past week. This trend will obviously continue and peak in mid October here in central Ohio and + or - a week depending on where you are in the state. At this time we are forecast to have a good year for fall color, however, it is hard to determine the quality of the fall color since it is so dependent on how much wind an rain we get before peak times. 

Miscellaneous 

It is hard to ignore all the winter forecasts that start popping up this time of year, but it is important to take each one with a grain of salt. Recently, NOAA has released a forecast that boasts the probability for warmer than normal temperatures across much of the northern United States and drier than normal conditions in the Ohio Valley. This is a very common forecast from them as they tend to be biased toward above normal winters. Their long range winter predictions have had extremely poor results over the past several years so I wouldn't look into that one to much. The farmers almanac has issued a forecast that, in my opinion, is comical. They don't really issue any predictions, but instead use bold adjectives to describe what they think will happen. The biggest problem with this approach is the lack of consistency in the way it can be interpreted. For example, they say we will have "stinging cold" temperatures. This could be interpreted in many different ways because what I consider to be "stinging" is likely to be different from another persons opinion. My advise would be to just wait until late November to get a more accurate winter forecast that can be taken more seriously. 

As a side note, I would like to inform you of the records being set in Antarctica. As of this week they have shattered the all time record high extent of sea ice and even going off the charts on many graphs. This has been largely ignored in our biased, politically driven media so I wanted to let you see what was really happening to our "melting planet". I have said it before and I will say it again, CHECK THE FACTS THAT ARE IN FRONT OF YOU BEFORE YOU DECIDE YOUR STANCE ON AN ISSUE. It is frustrating when I see media outlets purposely leaving out stories that would go against the agenda of the station. With Antarctica setting impressive records and the north pole gaining more ice each year, it is time to wake up and move past this notion that the poles are melting and everything is going to flood. It is simply false and a waste of time and resources to talk about.

 

Here is a graph of the current Antarctic sea ice extent (yellow line) overlaid on previous years. 

Down But Not Out

Good News

The overnight severe threat does not look to be anything widespread. An isolated strong to severe cell cannot be ruled out, however, a widespread damaging wind event does not appear to be developing. Lightning and heavy rain will be the biggest impacts with the thunderstorms tonight.

Bad News

Even with the lack of severe weather tonight, Sunday will still be an extremely unstable day. All modes of severe weather are on the table for tomorrow. So, tonight could be a little rocky, but tomorrow could turn out to be very dangerous.

Now What?

First Round of Storms Moving Out!

After our afternoon storms, I am keeping an eye on storms out in Illinois. This evening, Illinois and Indiana have an air mass that is extremely unstable and full of energy for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center still says that confidence is low, in terms of how the storms will develop this evening and overnight. It is still possible that a line of storms develop and move across Indiana and into Ohio overnight with damaging winds and heavy rain.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA UNTIL 6PM ON SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PINK IS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND THE GREEN IS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. COLUMBUS IS INCLUDED IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

Severe Weather Update

Severe Weather Outlook Update

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new day 2 outlook and it expanded the MODERATE RISK are to include much of eastern and southern Ohio including the Columbus Metro area and the immediate surrounding counties. They are also continuing to discus the possibility of supercell thunderstorms with the potential to produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. They also continue to state that a couple intense tornadoes are possible. An intense tornado is generally and EF-2 or greater strength. This is a fairly rare outbreak for the month of July and it should not be taken lightly. This storm system is very similar to a spring storm in many ways, so PAY ATTENTION. 

Here is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday. 

As always, I will update you on things as they develop. Have a safety plan in place should you need to seek shelter at any point tomorrow or even tonight. Stay Safe!

Dangerous Saturday Night and Sunday

Tonight 

The forecast for today is still relatively unchanged with the main threat for severe storms arriving late tonight with just a few isolated pop up storms during the afternoon. The overnight threat has the potential to produce widespread damaging winds across the area. Areas south of I-70 have the highest threat of severe weather. If a squall line developed and moves across, winds in excess of 60-80mph are possible along with isolated spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the line. Hail will not be as much of a threat tonight.

Sunday

After morning storms the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize with the heating of the day and lead to very volatile weather conditions. Super cell thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with a risk of very large hail and tornadoes. Eastern and southern Ohio have the highest risk again, however, the entire state has some level of risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is also mentioning the possibility of a few strong tornadoes across the area. Tomorrow is not a day to let your guard down, take the weather very seriously on Sunday and have a plan in place if you need to seek shelter. The cold front will be moving into a very unstable air mass and has the potential to fire up some very strong storms that will have life threatening impacts. Stay tuned for updates and as always, have a way to get warnings from the national weather service.

I will try to update things again this afternoon and evening when a new forecast is issued. 

Weekend Severe Threat

Overview

There will be multiple chances for thunderstorms this weekend. A risk of severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. In addition heavy rain and lightning are always a threat with any thunderstorm that develops. The peak times for severe thunderstorms are still a bit uncertain, however, it appears that Saturday night into Sunday morning and then again on Sunday afternoon and evening will be the most volatile times.

Round 1 (Saturday into early Sunday)

Saturday will be a hot and steamy day with a warm front crossing the region in the early afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms are possible with that front and during the day. A line of storms is expected to develop out in Iowa and Illinois and move east. If this line can hold together it would arrive late Saturday and early Sunday morning. The main threats with this round of storms will be widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Round 2 (Sunday afternoon and evening)

The severe risk on Sunday will largely depend on how much sun we get after the morning storms. More sun= more energy and a higher possibility of storms. If the instability is great enough on Sunday afternoon, a threat for large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will exist. The cold front that will roll through will be very powerful and has to potential to spark widespread severe weather on Sunday. PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND LISTEN TO LOCAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

I will update things as they progress.

Our Roller Coaster Pattern Continues

What a Pattern

This summer has already been a series of temperature swings with brief hot spells followed by prolonged cool downs. As we start the final weeks of July, the pattern will hold with a few hot days followed by much below normal temperatures. After every warm period will come a chance of storms as the cold fronts move through to knock out the heat.

This Week

The first of these cold fronts will come on Wednesday. Tuesday will feature highs in the low 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's to possibly 100 degrees. Wednesday will be a wet day with the potential for severe storms and heavy rains. Thursday will be the first of the cool days with highs only in the 70's when our normal highs should be in mid to upper 80's. Highs will remain below normal through at least Monday. The European model is suggesting a significant cold spell sometime next week, so we will have to watch for further information on that forecast.

Climate Change? 

Now I'm not going to claim that I know all the answers, because I don't, but I would like to challenge everyone to use common sense when it comes to what the media reports about "climate change". If one just takes a look at the information they are being told, holes in the data can be found everywhere. An example of this is NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) global temperature data.

As you can clearly see, BOTH of the poles, central Africa, areas north of Japan, northeast of Australia and a large chunk of the southern Pacific Ocean are missing data all together!!! Also, notice the ridiculously low resolution of the map. This is 2014, we have temperature data far more accurate than what is displayed here and it is all to skew the look of the global temperatures. I also find it interesting that the poles are conveniently left out when they are both experiencing large amounts of sea ice and far below normal temperatures.  

This image is courtesy of meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue.

As you can clearly see, much higher resolution maps are available and can provide far more accurate and true representations of the global temperatures. Now, the map from Dr. Maue is only for the month of June, while the NOAA map is for January 2014-June 2014. I wanted to show everyone that the technology does exist and NOAA seems to be intentionally skewing their data to support political agendas. Examples of skewed data, such as this, can be found all over the place and I want to bring it to your attention. 

Once again, I want to stress that I do not claim to know everything, but when you hear about "climate change" I would ask that everyone take a minute to think about what is being said and to not be afraid to question the "facts". 

My rant is over and I hope that I have at least provided you with some information you didn't know before. 

Thanks for reading!!

Weekly Update, June 29-July 5

JULY 4TH WEEK!!

I can't believe we are already to the fourth of July week!! The forecast for Independence Day looks great for the state of OHIO!!
 The temperatures look very pleasant across the state with highs ranging from the mid 70's to the mid 80's with lots of sunshine!

Today through Tuesday--- Hot conditions state-wide with highs in the mid 80's to low 90's all three days. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the greatest coverage in the central and northern parts of the state. **SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS** Watch out each day (Sunday, Monday and Tuesday) for severe storms to fire up with high winds, hail, isolated tornadoes and flooding downpours. Today and Tuesday look like the highest threat days, so be sure you have a way to get alerts and be prepared to seek shelter in the event of severe weather. Remember, IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. 

Wednesday---Highs in the 80's and thunderstorms from central Ohio and points south. 

Thursday---Highs in the low 80's to mid 70's with plenty of sunshine!

Independence Day--- Highs 75-80 with tons of sun!!! Perfect day for cookouts and pool time!!  

Saturday--- More sun with temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Have a safe and fun holiday! 

Weekly Update, June 22-28, 2014

This week will be a typical summer week, which is fitting since this will be the first full week of summer.

Today---Highs in the low 80's statewide with only isolated thunderstorms possible in the southern half of the state.

Monday---This will likely be the hottest day of the week with highs pushing 90 in central and southern Ohio and mid to upper 80's north. Pop-up storms possible across the state.

Tuesday---Will be a very wet day! Highs will be in the mid 80's everywhere with widespread storms and heavy rain across the state.

Wednesday---Low 80's with isolated thunderstorms across the entire state.

Thursday---Mid 80's in the southern half of the state, with low 80's north. isolated thunderstorms across southern and central Ohio and sunny in northern Ohio.

Friday---Low to Mid 80's with scattered thunderstorms for everyone.

Saturday---Mid 80's with isolated thunderstorms across the area.

Severe Weather Threat

Severe Storms Possible Today

There is a severe weather threat today across all of Ohio wight he greatest threat from central Ohio northward. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, however, the main threat will be damaging wind with hail possible. There are a few storms starting to pop right now in the unstable air ahead of a more developed line of storms in lower Michigan, Northern Indiana and Illinois. Any storm that pops up ahead of the line will be capable of hail and damaging winds, but if the line holds together, a more widespread damaging wind threat will occur. the timing on the line of storms will likely be late afternoon into the evening. Right now the storms are producing very frequent lightning and will continue to do so as they move south and east. I will update later if a watch is issued or any warnings in Central Ohio.

Weekly Overview, June 15-21, 2014

In order to keep up with my blog during the summer months, I will be doing weekly updates on Sundays and special posts for severe weather during the week. Hopefully this is helpful!

June 15-21

Today-- Highs across the state will be in the mid 80's with only a very slight chance of a late day storm in far western Ohio. Otherwise, sunny skies statewide.

Monday-- Highs will range from the mid 80's in the north to near 90 in southern Ohio. A better chance of rain* exists on Monday, with the greatest threats in central and northern parts of the state.

Tuesday-- **HOT** This will be the first day of our heat wave with temperatures in the low 90's for the central and southern parts of the state and mid to upper 80's in the north. Heat index values could approach or surpass 100 in central Ohio and could approach 105 in southern Ohio. The rain* chances are still there statewide, but shift north with the most widespread coverage.

Wednesday--**HOT** Day two of the heat wave. Same temperature forecast as Tuesday, but rain chances will increase across central and southern Ohio. Northern Ohio will likely receive the most rain this week which should keep the heat down.

Thursday--**HOT** Day three of the heat wave with temperatures staying in the 90's in the central and southern parts of Ohio and mid 80's north. Central and Northern Ohio will have the best rain chances* Thursday with Southern Ohio still looking at isolated thunderstorms.

Friday--Temperatures will start to get closer to normal by this time with low to mid 80's from northern Ohio to central Ohio and upper 80's south. Thunderstorm chances* still remain highest from central Ohio northward.

Saturday-- Temperatures statewide fall to the low to mid 80's with isolated thunderstorm* chances statewide.

*-- Remember, thunderstorms in this kind of pattern don't always impact everybody, however, they will pop up and could become strong to severe any day. I don't see any real washout days, but hit or miss storms are possible just about every day this week.

**X**---Alerts possible for significant weather event. (Heat, Wind, Wind Chill, Frost Advisory) 

Feel free to give me feedback on twitter or Facebook to let me know what you want to see or don't want to see on my blog.

Winter Returns

Why Can't Spring Stick Around!? 

Well, after a wonderful day in the mid-upper 60's, we will be heading back to reality tomorrow. Moderate to heavy rain will come in tonight and continue into the morning. Our temperatures will start out in the 50's and fall into the mid-20's by the evening. Snow will start falling around 1pm and could be heavy at times. Storm total snow accumulations will be around 2" in the I-70 corridor with less south and a lot more to the north. Northern Ohio could be in for a blizzard with snow accumulations of 6-12" and winds gusting to 50mph! At this time the only blizzard warnings that have been issued are for the Buffalo, New York area, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them extended back into Northern Ohio including Toledo and Cleveland. Winds in Central Ohio will also be gusty and could blow snow around. Winds could gust 40-50 mph area wide and this could cause minor tree damage.

Wind chills Wednesday night and Thursday morning will also be in the weather headlines since they could drop to as low as -5 to -15! Those numbers are extremely rare for mid march and will feel extra cold after today's weather!

Our temperatures will moderate by Friday and stay in the upper 30's to low 50's for several days.

This snow event will likely not be the last. Spring starts around March 20 so just remember that IT IS STILL WINTER!

Historical Weather

On this day in 1888 the Northeastern United States was impacted by one of the worst blizzards in history!

On March 7-9, 2008 Columbus was hit by the heaviest snowfall ever recorded,  20.4"

On March 10, 2009 Port Columbus Int'l Airport recorded a record high of 79 degrees!

This shows how crazy March weather can be!

March Snowstorm

This March snowstorm is making for a forecasting nightmare. When you think of the atmosphere you can't just consider the bottom layer where we live, but you must consider all the layers in which precipitation has to fall. If the air is cold at the surface and warm aloft we get freezing rain which glazes over everything, if you make the cold air a little deeper and have a shallower warm layer that is when we see sleet or little ice pellets that bounce around, and of course, if the the layers are all cold that is when we get snow. A subtle change in the temperature above us can greatly impact what precipitation we see, even if it is below freezing at the surface. That is the problem with this incoming storm, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding the amount of warm air aloft which is resulting in inconsistent models and forecasters changing snow totals with every update. 

At this point I am going to stick with my forecast of 8-12" locally 14" which is what the National Weather Service is also thinking. I don't see a reason to change my forecast yet but I will reevaluate in the morning. 

SOUTHERN OHIO=3-8" of snow with the highest amounts closer to I-70 and .20-.40" of ice with the highest totals near the Ohio River. 

NORTHERN OHIO=4-10" of snow with the highest totals along and south of a line from Lima to Marion to Akron. 

Winter Storm Watch

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH which is in effect from Saturday night to Monday afternoon. 

Main Impacts…

Snow accumulations of 6"+ along and north of I-70 with possibly 10"+ in areas. 

Ice accumulations of 1/4"-1/2" south of I-70 with the highest ice accumulations falling south of a line from Wilmington to Chillicothe. Cincinnati could get some significant ice accumulations. 

There is still a considerable amount of uncertanty regarding the type of precipitation that will fall in our area. A shift in the storm track would greatly impact the snow and ice totals in any given area. One thing that is certain is the fact that we will be impacted by a major winter storm that will last about 36 hours with the worst of the storm occurring Sunday night into Monday morning. 

I DO EXPECT THE SCHOOL DISTRICS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO TO CLOSE ON MONDAY DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW/ICE. 

Here is the current snow forecast from Wilmington issued this morning. 

 

You can see that a slight shift north or south in the storm track would have a huge impact on snow amounts in the I-70 corridor. 

Here is the ice accumulation forecast issued at the same time this morning. 

I think the heaviest ice forecast will be shifted south from where it is in this forecast and Wilmington issued a statement saying they expect the areas along the Ohio River to see the highest ice amounts. 

I will let you know if the forecast changes and when winter storm warnings are issued. 

Winter Weather Update

I do not have many changes to my forecast for the major winter storm this weekend through Monday.

Here is a breakdown of timing and impacts across Ohio

Northern Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

By Saturday night the storm will move in and last on and off through Monday morning. I do not anticipate this area to receive the most snow but a general 3-7" appears likely with the least snow occurring in northwest Ohio from Toledo to Tiffin to Lima and higher amounts south of a line from Marion to Akron to Youngstown. 

Central Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

Starting Saturday night snow and perhaps some sleet will overspread the area and increase in intensity until the peak intensity during the night on Sunday. This area along the I-70 corridor will be the battleground for the potential of snow, sleet and freezing rain depending on the path of the storm. My current feelings are that from I-70 north this will mainly be a snow event with only minor sleet and ice accumulations and south of I-70 there could be significant mix of precipitation types. Snow amounts from I-70 north in Central Ohio could be very significant ranging from 5-14" and south of I-70 amounts of 3-6" with 1/4"-1/2" of ice accumulation. The amount of snow is still uncertain, but the potential does exist for a major impact snow event. Cities in the heavy snow could be Columbus, Dayton, Delaware, Newark, Mount Vernon, and Marysville. Some people who could be in line for ice includes Chillicothe, Lancaster, Grove City, New Lexington and Xenia. 

Southern Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

This region is most likely to endure a significant ice storm with amounts from 1/4"-3/4" but amounts are still very uncertain. The amount of ice will depend on how much sleet mixes in and how long you stay freezing rain. Areas most likely to experience heavy ice include Cincinnati, Circleville, Wilmington, Nelsonville, McConnelsville and Athens. 

March is Roaring in!!!!

Winter Recap 

We all know it has been cold and snowy, but how cold and how snowy?!?

This winter is currently in 3rd place for the snowiest winters on record and we stand just 3" away from second place and ~15" away from 1st place!

Columbus also had the first winter ever with 3 consecutive months with 12"+ of snow (dec.-feb.) and we certainly have the potential to add a 4th month to that list. Just last year we had 12" of snow in March and it looks to do that again this year. 

We also have had three months of below normal tenperatures with December ending just below normal, but January and February will go down as some of the coldest consecutive months in Columbus, both averaging between 6-8 degrees below normal for THE ENTIRE MONTH! 

Upcoming Storm

There will be a long-duration snow/ice event starting this Friday night and lasting on and off all the way through Monday afternoon! The snow and ice amounts are still far from set in stone but I will say that many models are showing between 6"-15" of snow and/or .25"-1.25" of ice. The amount of snow and ice will depend on the eventual track of the storms and just how much warm air can be pulled north into the storm, however, I am leaning more toward a mainly snow event with minor sleet and ice accumulations. The amount of time we spend mixing or changing over to ice/sleet will greatly impact the final snow totals. 

The duration of this storm will be a major issue as well with minor snow coming in Friday night and Saturday morning followed by a brief break before the bigger storm arrives for Saturday night through Monday afternoon. This length of time will make it more expensive for city's and states to keep roads clear and could be a huge hit to the local budgets, not to mention the nationwide salt shortage! 

It is going to be early March so the sun angle will help melt snow off the roads and maximize the effectiveness of salt, however, the downside to late season snow is the weight of the snow. This storm will have very heavy and wet snow which will be hard to lift and plow and could bring down some tree limbs. Any damage to trees should be isolate unless we get 1/4" of ice or more. 

When Will the Cold End?!? 

Well this has been the question of the winter and with spring nearing and sports starting, more people want to know when it will finally get warm! The short answer to the question is that the cold will not be ending any time soon and we could be heading into the coldest March since 1996 and it won't come without snow. Current indications show the potential for more subzero nights well into the first half of March along with the possibility of wind chills dropping back to as low as 15-25 below zero around March 5-10. Temperatures and wind chills of that magnitude would be unheard of and would certainly set records for the day and possibly all time coldest March temperatures. These conditions could start to harm plants as they emerge for spring as well. At this time we are likely to see below normal temperatures all the way through, at least, the third week of March. Don't lose hope yet, we can't stop spring from coming and it will get warm eventually! For now, just accept the cold and snow and remember we are living through one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record! 

MORE SNOW DAYS?!?! 

I know some people, especially school administrators, are getting tired of snow days, but I do not think we have seen the last of our snow days this year. Because it is March and the sun angle is much stronger, having more than one day off of school at a time does not appear likely, but next Monday is looking more and more like another day off for many schools in central and northern Ohio. This will push most suburbs in Franklin County to their 8th snow day and could push Columbus schools to 9+ days off this year! Since the snow will be heavy and wet, road crews will have a hard time pushing the snow off the roads and clearing parking lots, this will most likely mean more parking spots covered under mountains of snow for a few more weeks. 

I will update you as more information comes in and let you know when any watches, warnings or advisories are issued. 

 

Storm Update

Very Complex Forecast 

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the amount of mixed precipitation in central Ohio. At the time, it appears that I need to adjust my snowfall forecast in central and southwest Ohio since more ice could mix in. There will be a tight gradient in snowfall with the highest totals north and west of interstate 71 and lesser amounts south and east. I think in Franklin county there will be a variety of precipitation types with Dublin seeing 6-9" of snow and .1" of ice, downtown Columbus should see 2-5" of snow and .15"-.25" of ice and down near Groveport ~3" of snow and .25-.35" of ice. All it takes is .25" of ice to down trees and power lines. 

Gahanna should see 5-7" of snow and around .2" of ice. 

The snow and ice amounts are highly dependant on the duration and intensity of mixed precipitation. The longer we stay all snow, then obviously we will see more snow and less ice and vise-versa. 

For areas in southern Ohio from Cincinnati to Chillicothe there are ICE STORM WARNINGS in effect for the potential for ice accumulations of 1/4"-1/2" and locally higher. This could cause longer term power outages if the ice accumulates this much. 

Areas from Dayton to Marysville to Delaware and points north, I expect 8-12" of snow with little to no ice accumulations. 

The snow will move in around 7pm and will come down very hard for a few hours. The onset of snow will quickly cover roads and make travel hazardous. I do expect many school closures for tomorrow due to the ice and snow accumulations. 

I will monitor the latest model forecasts and keep an eye on the storm as it developes. This will be a rapidly changing storm with very subtle yet important forecasting challenges. 

Next update will be around 4pm when the WINTER STORM WARNING goes into effect. 

Tuesday and Wednesday

When?

The snow will move in around 7pm tomorrow and will peak in intensity from 9pm to 2am. The snow will taper off around 11am-noon Wednesday. During the peak intensity, snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour will be possible and this could cause roads to become hazardous and possibly impassable. 

How Much?

6-10" with local amounts up to 12" possible (mainly north and west of Columbus) along with a tenth of an inch of ice (mainly south of Columbus). 

Who Gets What?

NW Ohio= 4-8" 

NE Ohio= 7-11"+ 

SW Ohio= 2-4" with .1"-.25" of ice 

SE Ohio = less than an inch with flooding rains 

Central Ohio= 6-10"+ with ~ .1" of ice 

Impacts 

Very hazardous road conditions, especially over night tomorrow night and for the morning commute Wednesday. The snow could be very heavy and wet, which will make it harder to shovel. 

This will likely be the heaviest snowfall in over a year and will result in major impacts. 

Many schools will probably be using up another snow day for Wednesday. 

Major Snowstorm

I'm sorry I haven't been updating, I was on vacation! 

The biggest snow event of the season so far will be impacting us Tuesday Evening into Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued from 4pm Tuesday to 10am Wednesday. 

IMPACTS

6-10" of snow locally 12"

Gusty winds Wednesday may cause drifting

Very heavy snow Tuesday night 

This will be a relatively short loved storm an should be over in less than 12hours. With 6-12" of snow, that will mean an extended period of 1" per hour snowfall rates Tuesday night and WILL cause extremely bad road conditions. 

I am still on the road and will update when I get home. Be prepared for very heavy snow and school cloasings on Wednesday. 

Is Winter Almost Over?

Rest of the Week

We will have bitter cold through mid-week with moderating temperatures by the weekend. Some models are saying that we could pouch 40 on Saturday with maybe some rain and snow mix. The GFS model (American) says we could get a decent snow event this weekend from late Friday to Sunday Morning. The European model is going toward a warmer soul ton with much less accumulation. Finally the Canadian model is in line with the American model and tries to bring another 3-6" snow event in here. I will be gone over the weekend up in Michigan so we will probably get hit my a major snowstorm, since that always happens when I'm not here! :) 

Next Week

All the models are now in agreement for next week and have been fairly consistent for multiple runs. Every one of them is developing a monster snowstorm and moving it up the Appalachian Mountains. For those who live in Ohio, Kentucky and Michigan this is the number one storm track for heavy snows. The one thing the models are differing on is the intensity of the storm, this leads to some fairly significant snowfall changes. 

Models Forecast Snow Totals

European is stronger and slightly further south=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 3-6", Central Ohio gets 6-12" and Southern Ohio and Kentucky get 12"+. 

GFS is a flatter solution and results in lighter snow amounts=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 3-5", Central Ohio gets 5-10" and Southern Ohio and Kentucky get 4-6". 

Canadian is the strongest model of them all=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 8-15", Central Ohio gets 8-12", Southern Ohio gets 1-4" and Kentucky gets less than an inch. 

As you can see there are some slight variations except in Central Ohio, here a significant snow event appears likely. This is still more than a week away and can/will change as we get closer, However, the treat of high impact event appears likely and could impact schools and travel plans. 

February/Rest of Winter

I continue to hear complaints about how long and unrelenting this wirer has been and many people are asking when it is going to end. Well, February does not look like an end to winter, with the potential for heavy snows and continued cold across the entire Midwest and shifting back into the Plains States. 

Just remember, this winter is rare and very impressive. This is one of the winters you can be proud to have survived and you call tell your kids and grand kids about it. Enjoy it while it lasts and make the best of what we have, after all it is still JANUARY. 

I do in fact see an end in sight. March is showing early indications of being above normal temperature wise. This will likely lead to a quick flip from winter to spring and could make for an interesting severe weather season. 

As always stay safe in this cold, and I will continue to monitor this weekend and next weeks snowstorms!