Weekend Severe Threat

Overview

There will be multiple chances for thunderstorms this weekend. A risk of severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. In addition heavy rain and lightning are always a threat with any thunderstorm that develops. The peak times for severe thunderstorms are still a bit uncertain, however, it appears that Saturday night into Sunday morning and then again on Sunday afternoon and evening will be the most volatile times.

Round 1 (Saturday into early Sunday)

Saturday will be a hot and steamy day with a warm front crossing the region in the early afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms are possible with that front and during the day. A line of storms is expected to develop out in Iowa and Illinois and move east. If this line can hold together it would arrive late Saturday and early Sunday morning. The main threats with this round of storms will be widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Round 2 (Sunday afternoon and evening)

The severe risk on Sunday will largely depend on how much sun we get after the morning storms. More sun= more energy and a higher possibility of storms. If the instability is great enough on Sunday afternoon, a threat for large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will exist. The cold front that will roll through will be very powerful and has to potential to spark widespread severe weather on Sunday. PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND LISTEN TO LOCAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

I will update things as they progress.