Christmas Week
As we approach the holidays the weather across the country will get busy. Here in the Ohio Valley rain will be the headline weather story. After receiving over 1.25" of rain overnight, we continue to set the stage for potential high water issues leading up to the holidays. After a brief break today, more rain moves in tomorrow. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are possible. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has areas just to our south in the risk of severe weather for tomorrow, and that includes the risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. The highest risk of tornadoes should remain well to the south across Tennessee, however, I can't rule out a brief spin up this far north. The northward extent of the severe weather will depend on how much instability can make it up here. You should stay alert tomorrow as severe weather outbreaks in December do occur and can be quite dangerous.Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning will feature another dry period before more rain moves in later Christmas Day. The 26-27 has the potential to bring very heavy rains as a powerful storm lifts north towards the Great Lakes. Everything should begin to clear out around the 30th. Beyond that, the forecasts diverge and confidence decreases immensely.
Rainfall totals over the next 7-10 days will be on the order of 2-6" across the Ohio Valley. This could lead to high water concerns, especially if thunderstorms drop heavy rain in a short amount of time.
Christmas Travel
If you are traveling this Christmas season, be prepared for impacts both on the road and in the air. The western US has huge amounts of snow and is in the midst of their best ski season in years. Expect the resorts to be very busy and travel to be difficult on the snowy roads. Following Christmas, a major storm is likely to impact the nations midsection. Exactly where this sets up is still undetermined, but it is looking increasingly likely that someone from the Texas Panhandle to the northern Plains will see a major snowstorm or blizzard. In the east, it will be all about the rain. This will cause delays at the airports and could result in slower travel on the road, especially if more widespread flooding occurs. Always remember the phrase "turn around, don't drown". Very few places will escape the bad weather this Christmas, but if you are heading to Florida you are in for some unseasonably warm weather with highs across much of the state in the 80's! Wherever you go this holiday season, be safe and have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Where's the Snow?
Even though it is just now the first day of winter, I have been hearing the cries for snow for quite some time now. Everyone is wondering where winter is and whether we will see snow at all this year. There are a few things you should know before you start saying winter is over.
First--The western United States has been getting pummeled with incredible snow since November. Many locations have seen half of what they saw all last year, if not more than last year. This is very good news for them as this helps replenish reservoirs and eases the water crisis. The west has been suffering from below normal snowfall for several years now and will benefit greatly from this deep snow pack.
Second--We have been spoiled the last few years with intense cold and snow in November and December, and this has made people come to expect the early season winters. The truth is, you can't expect that every year and we were due a mild start. This year has been exceptionally warm with many records falling, but it's not the first warm December we have had and it certainly won't be the last. Believe it or not, last Christmas Day had a high temperature in the mid 60's too. 60 on Christmas here in Columbus isn't extremely rare, even though it may be unpleasant.
Third--This isn't a "typical" El Nino pattern and we WILL see snow. The meteorologists who continue to stick to the El Nino propaganda are just embarrassing themselves at this point. To say this year is like the last major El Nino is insane. The "typical" El Nino should bring a very dry winter to the Ohio Valley...and with more rain coming this week, that forecast continues to fall apart. As the winter season progresses, and more cold air becomes available, I expect the snow to shift to the east. This could really get ranking in late January into February. Just hold on and be patient, the snow will come.
