Winter Weather Update

It appears that some light snow showers will occur across central Ohio Friday night into Saturday morning. A very light dusting is possible on grassy surfaces, but not much more than that. In western Ohio and northeastern Ohio, it is possible that a little more than a dusting occurs. The rain will change to snow earlier in the western part of the state and the northeastern counties will have Lake Erie to enhance the snowfall. Central Ohio will be in a kind of donut hole where the precipitation could end before we get cold enough for higher snow totals.

The mountains of West Virginia will get hammered by the snow. The highest peaks could receive upwards of a foot of snow and even eastern Kentucky is under WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for 1-4" of snow! This is not unusual for the mountains, but eh valleys could pick up 1-2" and that is rare for this time of the year. Believe it or not, the snow will stretch all the way down to the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee!

Here in Ohio, our growing season will come to an end this weekend with temperature dropping into the 20's for an extended period of time. This is considered a hard freeze and will kill whatever plant life is still alive. That means no more mowing! Yeah!

Temperatures will rebound next week, but will remain near or slightly below the seasonal average.

Enjoy the early taste of winter this weekend and Go Bucks!

Update on a Potentially Wintry Weekend

Another Snowy Halloween?!?!

The models are beginning to come into some more agreement in terms of what happens this weekend. It is still a few days away and some of the details still need to be ironed out.

What We Know

It is nearly a guarantee that we will have the coldest weather of the season, so far, Friday through Sunday. Low temperatures will dip all the way down into the mid 20's for Saturday morning and Sunday morning. This will end the growing season, but it won't impact the crops since they are already mature.

What We Do Not Know

As is the case with every winter event, the location and amount of snow is still uncertain. This is a very difficult thing to forecast because minor changes in the temperatures, track and intensity of the system will greatly impact who get what, and how much they get. Currently I am leaning toward at least snow falling during Friday night into Saturday morning. Due to the time of the year and recent warmth, road conditions should remain only wet. Any minor accumulations that do occur would be on grassy and elevated surfaces. The current spectrum of possibilities, in my opinion, would look like this...

Low end of snowfall potential                                                     High end of snowfall potential
Flurries and no accumulation ---------------------------------------> 1" with isolated 2"

I would be surprised if we don't see any snow, and a widespread trace amount seems quite likely.

I will continue to update you as I receive new information.

Expect a Cold Start to November

This Weekend and Early Next Week 

So far, Port Columbus has recorded 14 days with measurable rain in the month of October. We will get a brief break in the unsettled weather this weekend before the next system rolls through here on Tuesday. High temperatures are well above normal today and will be in the mid-upper 70's on Monday and Tuesday. A weak front will cross through the area tonight which will drop highs back into the low-mid 60's for Sunday, however, it will be sunny tomorrow. The main front will cross through here on Tuesday afternoon and will bring the threat of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the entire state. Widespread rainfall of less than a half inch will be likely with a few isolated spots getting a little bit more. It will be a gusty day before the front arrives as well. 

Halloween Forecast 

Things will get interesting by the end of the week around here. Highs will be in the 50's on Wednesday and Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Many communities will trick-or-treat on Thursday night and that will definitely be the best night to do so. It will be chilly withs lows in the upper 30's to low 40's state-wide, but it will be dry. Friday will be cold and damp with rain showers and highs staying in the 40's. The models are trying to hint at some snowflakes around here by Friday night and into Saturday. 

Next Weekend Forecast Challenges

There is great agreement amongst the models in terms of the temperatures. It is likely that we will see temperatures staying in the mid to lower 40's on Saturday and Sunday and low temperatures dropping into the lower 30's to middle 20's! This has the potential be the coldest air mass of the season and will deliver us a killing freeze to officially end the growing season. Where the models disagree is whether or not snow will be a factor. The two major models (GFS and ECMWF) both suggest snow will be falling, but the amount is still uncertain. The GFS thinks that we will only see flurries and no real accumulations, however, the ECMWF is more bullish and tries to put down 1-2" in Central Ohio and more than 2" in Northeastern Ohio. It also shows a healthy snowstorm in the mountains of West Virginia and Pennsylvania with several inches in those spots. Due to the level of cold air with this system, we should see the first lake-effect event of the season in the usual snow belts of Northeastern OH. 

*****I want to stress that this is a forecast that is GOING to change as we get closer to the event. There is a high degree of certainty for the cold temperatures, but the locations and amounts of snow will take some time to pin down. Many factors will impact whether we can get snow out of this system, but, I wanted to let you know what is on the table. I will update you on any further developments and any new information I receive. Stay Tuned! 

Winter Came Early!

Snow on October 4th?

Many people in Central Ohio saw snowflakes on the first Saturday morning of October! The Port Columbus Airport (CMH) recorded a trace amount of snow and confirmed that the flakes were indeed flying! This makes for an extremely short time between snowflakes for the year since our last snow fell on April 15, 2014! This beats last years short snow-less time by several weeks. In 2013, at CMH the last snow of the spring was April 1 and the first snow of fall came on October 23. Two years in a row with April and October snows is not a record but it is uncommon for us to have such short times between snowfalls.

Another form of precipitation that fell on Saturday was graupel. This is often mistaken as hail, however, it is formed completely different. You will also notice that graupel is soft unlike hail and is always small (pea size or smaller). Graupel doesn't cause damage that large hail can cause and the graupel occurs when the atmosphere is very cold at low levels. When hail forms it is lifted up very high into a thunderstorm where it can get into the cold temperatures of the atmosphere and freeze. This pattern is repeated until the updraft can no longer support the ice ball. With graupel, the snow flakes never have the opportunity to melt all the way. This forms a small ice pellet, similar to sleet, that is soft with a small outer shell.

Graupel Formation Image

Hail Formation Image

What Now?

As we continue into October, the cold shots should become more intense with time. I do not think this is our last encounter with snow for this month and some forecasts suggest that winter could get off to an early start in the coming months. Our Fall foliage here in Ohio should peak between the 10th-20th depending on where you are in the state. Expect a lot of ups and downs this month in regards to the temperature. At this time of year air masses are very progressive and don't tend to hold for very long. That being said, when all is said and done, I do expect October to end colder than normal for the entire month. I hope you enjoyed the snow and look forward to more to come because I sure do!!