March Snowstorm

This March snowstorm is making for a forecasting nightmare. When you think of the atmosphere you can't just consider the bottom layer where we live, but you must consider all the layers in which precipitation has to fall. If the air is cold at the surface and warm aloft we get freezing rain which glazes over everything, if you make the cold air a little deeper and have a shallower warm layer that is when we see sleet or little ice pellets that bounce around, and of course, if the the layers are all cold that is when we get snow. A subtle change in the temperature above us can greatly impact what precipitation we see, even if it is below freezing at the surface. That is the problem with this incoming storm, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding the amount of warm air aloft which is resulting in inconsistent models and forecasters changing snow totals with every update. 

At this point I am going to stick with my forecast of 8-12" locally 14" which is what the National Weather Service is also thinking. I don't see a reason to change my forecast yet but I will reevaluate in the morning. 

SOUTHERN OHIO=3-8" of snow with the highest amounts closer to I-70 and .20-.40" of ice with the highest totals near the Ohio River. 

NORTHERN OHIO=4-10" of snow with the highest totals along and south of a line from Lima to Marion to Akron. 

Winter Storm Watch

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH which is in effect from Saturday night to Monday afternoon. 

Main Impacts…

Snow accumulations of 6"+ along and north of I-70 with possibly 10"+ in areas. 

Ice accumulations of 1/4"-1/2" south of I-70 with the highest ice accumulations falling south of a line from Wilmington to Chillicothe. Cincinnati could get some significant ice accumulations. 

There is still a considerable amount of uncertanty regarding the type of precipitation that will fall in our area. A shift in the storm track would greatly impact the snow and ice totals in any given area. One thing that is certain is the fact that we will be impacted by a major winter storm that will last about 36 hours with the worst of the storm occurring Sunday night into Monday morning. 

I DO EXPECT THE SCHOOL DISTRICS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO TO CLOSE ON MONDAY DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW/ICE. 

Here is the current snow forecast from Wilmington issued this morning. 

 

You can see that a slight shift north or south in the storm track would have a huge impact on snow amounts in the I-70 corridor. 

Here is the ice accumulation forecast issued at the same time this morning. 

I think the heaviest ice forecast will be shifted south from where it is in this forecast and Wilmington issued a statement saying they expect the areas along the Ohio River to see the highest ice amounts. 

I will let you know if the forecast changes and when winter storm warnings are issued. 

Winter Weather Update

I do not have many changes to my forecast for the major winter storm this weekend through Monday.

Here is a breakdown of timing and impacts across Ohio

Northern Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

By Saturday night the storm will move in and last on and off through Monday morning. I do not anticipate this area to receive the most snow but a general 3-7" appears likely with the least snow occurring in northwest Ohio from Toledo to Tiffin to Lima and higher amounts south of a line from Marion to Akron to Youngstown. 

Central Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

Starting Saturday night snow and perhaps some sleet will overspread the area and increase in intensity until the peak intensity during the night on Sunday. This area along the I-70 corridor will be the battleground for the potential of snow, sleet and freezing rain depending on the path of the storm. My current feelings are that from I-70 north this will mainly be a snow event with only minor sleet and ice accumulations and south of I-70 there could be significant mix of precipitation types. Snow amounts from I-70 north in Central Ohio could be very significant ranging from 5-14" and south of I-70 amounts of 3-6" with 1/4"-1/2" of ice accumulation. The amount of snow is still uncertain, but the potential does exist for a major impact snow event. Cities in the heavy snow could be Columbus, Dayton, Delaware, Newark, Mount Vernon, and Marysville. Some people who could be in line for ice includes Chillicothe, Lancaster, Grove City, New Lexington and Xenia. 

Southern Ohio

Light snow will impact the region Friday night into Saturday morning with an inch of snow at best. 

This region is most likely to endure a significant ice storm with amounts from 1/4"-3/4" but amounts are still very uncertain. The amount of ice will depend on how much sleet mixes in and how long you stay freezing rain. Areas most likely to experience heavy ice include Cincinnati, Circleville, Wilmington, Nelsonville, McConnelsville and Athens. 

March is Roaring in!!!!

Winter Recap 

We all know it has been cold and snowy, but how cold and how snowy?!?

This winter is currently in 3rd place for the snowiest winters on record and we stand just 3" away from second place and ~15" away from 1st place!

Columbus also had the first winter ever with 3 consecutive months with 12"+ of snow (dec.-feb.) and we certainly have the potential to add a 4th month to that list. Just last year we had 12" of snow in March and it looks to do that again this year. 

We also have had three months of below normal tenperatures with December ending just below normal, but January and February will go down as some of the coldest consecutive months in Columbus, both averaging between 6-8 degrees below normal for THE ENTIRE MONTH! 

Upcoming Storm

There will be a long-duration snow/ice event starting this Friday night and lasting on and off all the way through Monday afternoon! The snow and ice amounts are still far from set in stone but I will say that many models are showing between 6"-15" of snow and/or .25"-1.25" of ice. The amount of snow and ice will depend on the eventual track of the storms and just how much warm air can be pulled north into the storm, however, I am leaning more toward a mainly snow event with minor sleet and ice accumulations. The amount of time we spend mixing or changing over to ice/sleet will greatly impact the final snow totals. 

The duration of this storm will be a major issue as well with minor snow coming in Friday night and Saturday morning followed by a brief break before the bigger storm arrives for Saturday night through Monday afternoon. This length of time will make it more expensive for city's and states to keep roads clear and could be a huge hit to the local budgets, not to mention the nationwide salt shortage! 

It is going to be early March so the sun angle will help melt snow off the roads and maximize the effectiveness of salt, however, the downside to late season snow is the weight of the snow. This storm will have very heavy and wet snow which will be hard to lift and plow and could bring down some tree limbs. Any damage to trees should be isolate unless we get 1/4" of ice or more. 

When Will the Cold End?!? 

Well this has been the question of the winter and with spring nearing and sports starting, more people want to know when it will finally get warm! The short answer to the question is that the cold will not be ending any time soon and we could be heading into the coldest March since 1996 and it won't come without snow. Current indications show the potential for more subzero nights well into the first half of March along with the possibility of wind chills dropping back to as low as 15-25 below zero around March 5-10. Temperatures and wind chills of that magnitude would be unheard of and would certainly set records for the day and possibly all time coldest March temperatures. These conditions could start to harm plants as they emerge for spring as well. At this time we are likely to see below normal temperatures all the way through, at least, the third week of March. Don't lose hope yet, we can't stop spring from coming and it will get warm eventually! For now, just accept the cold and snow and remember we are living through one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record! 

MORE SNOW DAYS?!?! 

I know some people, especially school administrators, are getting tired of snow days, but I do not think we have seen the last of our snow days this year. Because it is March and the sun angle is much stronger, having more than one day off of school at a time does not appear likely, but next Monday is looking more and more like another day off for many schools in central and northern Ohio. This will push most suburbs in Franklin County to their 8th snow day and could push Columbus schools to 9+ days off this year! Since the snow will be heavy and wet, road crews will have a hard time pushing the snow off the roads and clearing parking lots, this will most likely mean more parking spots covered under mountains of snow for a few more weeks. 

I will update you as more information comes in and let you know when any watches, warnings or advisories are issued. 

 

Storm Update

Very Complex Forecast 

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the amount of mixed precipitation in central Ohio. At the time, it appears that I need to adjust my snowfall forecast in central and southwest Ohio since more ice could mix in. There will be a tight gradient in snowfall with the highest totals north and west of interstate 71 and lesser amounts south and east. I think in Franklin county there will be a variety of precipitation types with Dublin seeing 6-9" of snow and .1" of ice, downtown Columbus should see 2-5" of snow and .15"-.25" of ice and down near Groveport ~3" of snow and .25-.35" of ice. All it takes is .25" of ice to down trees and power lines. 

Gahanna should see 5-7" of snow and around .2" of ice. 

The snow and ice amounts are highly dependant on the duration and intensity of mixed precipitation. The longer we stay all snow, then obviously we will see more snow and less ice and vise-versa. 

For areas in southern Ohio from Cincinnati to Chillicothe there are ICE STORM WARNINGS in effect for the potential for ice accumulations of 1/4"-1/2" and locally higher. This could cause longer term power outages if the ice accumulates this much. 

Areas from Dayton to Marysville to Delaware and points north, I expect 8-12" of snow with little to no ice accumulations. 

The snow will move in around 7pm and will come down very hard for a few hours. The onset of snow will quickly cover roads and make travel hazardous. I do expect many school closures for tomorrow due to the ice and snow accumulations. 

I will monitor the latest model forecasts and keep an eye on the storm as it developes. This will be a rapidly changing storm with very subtle yet important forecasting challenges. 

Next update will be around 4pm when the WINTER STORM WARNING goes into effect. 

Tuesday and Wednesday

When?

The snow will move in around 7pm tomorrow and will peak in intensity from 9pm to 2am. The snow will taper off around 11am-noon Wednesday. During the peak intensity, snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour will be possible and this could cause roads to become hazardous and possibly impassable. 

How Much?

6-10" with local amounts up to 12" possible (mainly north and west of Columbus) along with a tenth of an inch of ice (mainly south of Columbus). 

Who Gets What?

NW Ohio= 4-8" 

NE Ohio= 7-11"+ 

SW Ohio= 2-4" with .1"-.25" of ice 

SE Ohio = less than an inch with flooding rains 

Central Ohio= 6-10"+ with ~ .1" of ice 

Impacts 

Very hazardous road conditions, especially over night tomorrow night and for the morning commute Wednesday. The snow could be very heavy and wet, which will make it harder to shovel. 

This will likely be the heaviest snowfall in over a year and will result in major impacts. 

Many schools will probably be using up another snow day for Wednesday. 

Major Snowstorm

I'm sorry I haven't been updating, I was on vacation! 

The biggest snow event of the season so far will be impacting us Tuesday Evening into Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued from 4pm Tuesday to 10am Wednesday. 

IMPACTS

6-10" of snow locally 12"

Gusty winds Wednesday may cause drifting

Very heavy snow Tuesday night 

This will be a relatively short loved storm an should be over in less than 12hours. With 6-12" of snow, that will mean an extended period of 1" per hour snowfall rates Tuesday night and WILL cause extremely bad road conditions. 

I am still on the road and will update when I get home. Be prepared for very heavy snow and school cloasings on Wednesday.