Snow Storm Update

Snow Amounts

The models are really backing off on snow totals in Central Ohio. I am going to be surprised if anyone in the I-70 corridor gets more than 3-4" of snow. As you move north toward Marion, totals will get closer to 8" and people from Tiffin all the way up to south Detroit could top 12". As you head south the snow will drop off rapidly as Circleville will struggle to get to 1-2". Points south of Circleville might only end up a trace to 1 inch.

Winds

The winds will crank up behind the system on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 35mph will occur and this will lead to some blowing and drifting snow in open areas that receive higher snow accumulations. Parts of NW Ohio could have near blizzard conditions at times as well. 

Temperatures

There will be a major drop in temperature overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Some people could drop by as much as 15-20 degrees in just a couple of hours. Wind chills will drop to the minus 5 to minus 10 range by Monday morning for most of the State. This will lead to a rapid freeze-up and could cause some more slick spots. 

Snow and Cold

Snowfall Chances

As I'm sure a lot you have heard, there is a potential for a sizable snow event Sunday into Monday. I have been monitoring the forecast model trends and they are trying to come up with a solution they can all agree on. The current thinking is at as much as 4-6", locally 8", could fall in an area 50 miles to either side of I-70 through Ohio. I am not very confident in this storm just yet, given the indecisiveness in the models lately. By tomorrow afternoon we will have a much better idea of the location of the snow and the amounts. Nonetheless, it is important to monitor later forecast as this has the potential to be our biggest storm of the winter to date with major impacts on the Monday morning commute.

Bitter Cold

As we head into February things are going to turn very cold with numerous days featuring overnight lows below zero and frequently experiencing sub-zero wind chills. Tuesday, Thursday and Friday mornings next week all have the potential to start off below zero.
The European model is just one model and these are relatively long range forecasts so the numbers it is forecasting should not be considered as the exact forecast, but they can show a trend. Currently it is spitting out some pretty extreme numbers with wind chills on each of the mornings I listed above bottoming out near minus 20-25 and could approach minus 30 by Friday morning. Again, this is NOT my forecast, it is simply to give you an idea of how cold some of the most reliable models think it could get. I will keep a close eye on all of this winter weather coming our way over the next week and beyond. If some of this verifies, many schools will likely have several days off to open February.

Snowfall Forecast

The NWS in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Wilmington have issued WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for much of the day tomorrow. Those who are under the advisories can expect a widespread 3-5" with locally 6-8" possible. The axis of heaviest snow is still not 100% known, but confidence is growing. I will update the snowfall forecast if I have to and I will let you know if any more alerts are issued or upgraded. Go to weather.gov for details on the latest alerts for your area.

Weekend Clipper

Timing

An Alberta Clipper will move across the State on Sunday and last until early Monday morning.

Accumulations

The exact accumulations are still a bit uncertain, but as of now it appears that Central and Northern Ohio have the best chance at seeing 3"+ out of this clipper. The areas under the heaviest band of snow  band could see in excess of 5-6". This narrow corridor is very hard to forecast, but a better idea of where it sets up will become apparent later in the day on Saturday. According to the current forecasts, folks who live south of a line from Lima to Marion to Coshocton and north of a line from Dayton to Lancaster to Zanesville have the best chance at being in the heaviest band of snow. I will narrow down the accumulation forecasts tomorrow.

End of January and into February 

The pattern is showing signs of heading back to a very cold and rather snowy period. Sub-zero low temperatures and wind chills well below zero will be back on the table as we head into the beginning of February. The models are also pointing to the potential for frequent snow events. The details of these events is impossible to predict, but the overall pattern seems to be heading into a more active phase. Now, this winter has been very unpredictable and the models have seemed to preform quite poorly. Normally I would be confident in my forecast given what I am seeing form the models, but not this winter. More details will be available as we get closer to the period in question. Stay Tuned! 

More Winter Ahead

Temperatures

The bitter cold temperatures and wind chills continue with more sub-zero lows coming again tonight. Lows around Central Ohio will range from 0 to -10. Wind chills will be -10 to -20 across much of the State as well. As we head into the weekend temperatures will warm up as a storm system moves in, however, indications are that we head back into the brutal cold by mid-week next week with sub-zero temperatures and wind chills.

Snow?

As I mentioned above, a storm system will be moving through this weekend and early next week. The details on this storm are complicated as warm air will try to work its way in and try to bring some mixed wintry precipitation. The weather models have been all over the place with this storm as is usually the case when dealing with mixed precipitation. Currently the scenarios range from little to no snow accumulation with some freezing rain (ice) accumulations, all the way to a healthy snow event with up to 5-6". With such a wide range of possibilities it will be a couple of days before the details can be ironed out. This storm will come through on Sunday and Monday so we will have to keep an eye on it as we get closer.

I will update things as they become available

Winter Storm Update

Snowfall Forecast

This is an updated version of what I am thinking for the overnight snowfall. The heavier snow in Northeast Ohio will come from mainly lake-effect during the day Tuesday. The rest of the State will see an end to the snow by noon on Tuesday. 

The road crews will have a hard time keeping up with heavy snowfall rates and with temperatures in the teens salt becomes much less effective. I expect numerous school closings and delays across Central and Southern Ohio tomorrow. 

The Cold is Coming

This is the GFS forecast wind chills for Thursday morning.

These maps are courtesy of WeatherBELL Analytics

Temperatures this cold are dangerous and will likely lead to even more school closing and delays on Thursday morning. Dress in layers and cover as much skin as possible to stay warm and avoid frostbite. 

Check my twitter for frequent updates overnight and into the morning...@justinsolze 

Winter Storm Watch

Significant Snow Expected

The National Weather Services in Wilmington, Cleveland, and Northern Indiana have issued WINTER STORM WATCHES for Monday night into Tuesday morning. A general 4-6" is expected with locally 8" possible. This will lead to significant travel impacts on Tuesday morning and could lead to school closings and delays. Due to cold temperatures, the effectiveness of salt will be diminished so it will be more difficult to keep the roads clear.

Here are some pictures to give you an idea of where the heaviest snow is expected to fall. The dark blue counties are WINTER STORM WATCHES. These images and much more information can be found at weather.gov

Wilmington 

Cleveland

I will continue to update things as they develop and I will let you know when any warnings or advisories are issued.

Update On Brutal Cold

Cold and Snow This Week

Sunday-Tuesday

Temperatures will begin to fall dramatically through the day and into tonight. This morning temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 40's, but will fall into the mid to lower 10's by tomorrow morning. Winds will also be gusty during the day today with gusts around 30-40mph. We will also see the first sub-zero wind chills across the northern and western parts of Ohio tomorrow morning. Here is what the GFS model is forecasting for 7am Monday morning. These maps are courtesy of WeatherBELL Analytics and can be found at weatherbell.com.

Temperatures will not warm up much on Monday with highs struggling to get out of the teens. Monday night will feature an Alberta Clipper system that will bring some accumulating snow through Tuesday morning. These systems produce generally light snows that are fluffy in nature and often come with some breezy conditions. This clipper has the potential to drop a widespread 2-5" of snow across the northern two-thirds of the State. Here is my first call snowfall map for Monday night into Tuesday Morning. 

Wednesday-Friday

This period will be the coldest part of the week and will compare to the cold we saw last January. Wind Chills will approach minus 15 on Wednesday and minus 25 on Thursday. These wind chills can lead to frostbite in about 30 minutes. Be sure to dress in layers and cover as much skin as possible. If you have to spend an extended period of time outside, be sure to take frequent breaks to warm up. 

GFS forecast for Wednesday evening

GFS Thursday morning forecast

For those looking for a snow day, Thursday will be your best chance. However, some delays or closings are possible on Tuesday with the clipper system. 

Stay warm and enjoy the winter weather!

Brutal Cold Coming

Sugar Bowl Results

Ohio State-42 Alabama-35

Ok, back to the weather...

Freezing Rain and Rain

A storm system will move up from the south and bring a lot of moisture up into the area. The precipitation will start out as some freezing rain and sleet and could accumulate to about .1", but will melt off by noon. The rain could be moderate to heavy at times on Saturday with 1-2" possible. After the cold front moves through, temperatures will plummet about 40 degrees and change the precipitation over to some light snow showers or flurries.

Bitter Cold 

This storm will usher in the coldest air of the season. Monday will feature wind chills around 0-10 below zero with air temperatures in the teens. Wednesday and Thursday will feature the coldest air of the season and will be very similar to what we experienced last January. Some models are trying to paint wind chills as low as minus 25 in Central Ohio both Wednesday and Thursday morning. It is still quite early, but schools districts will need to pay close attention to the forecasts because that air will be dangerous for anyone who spends time outside. Wind Chills of that magnitude are exactly what we experienced last January when nearly all schools shut down for a couple of days. It is important to take this kind of cold seriously and to layer up. We have just finished a relatively warm December so this cold outbreak will feel even harsher. If we get some snow on the ground from a clipper system around midweek, then these temperatures could very well be colder than forecast. Bottom-line is this week will feature a bitterly cold arctic outbreak that will be dangerous to those spending time outdoors.

I will frequently update things during this developing situation. Stay warm and GO BUCKS!!!