Another Winter Storm

Snow Accumulations 

Sunday will be the first day of March, which marks the beginning of meteorological spring, however, we will be dealing with another winter storm. Snow will overspread the region late tonight and continue into the afternoon Sunday. There may be a lull in the precipitation on Sunday, followed by another burst of snow. Total accumulations along and north of I-70 will range from 4-8" and 1-4" south of I-70. In Southern Ohio, rain will mix in at times during the afternoon which will cut down on snow totals. If the rain/snow line shifts north or south by ~25-50 miles, then you will need to adjust the snowfall forecasts accordingly.

Flooding Potential

There will be a storm system that makes its way into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will spike into the 40's and 50's and get soaked with heavy rain. The precipitation may start off as some wintry mix, but will quickly transition to rain with some isolated thunder even a possibility. A couple of inches of rain could fall across a large portion of the State and with a melting snow pack, flooding will be a concern. The ground is essentially frozen solid from our stretch of record setting cold and that means any rain that falls will be 100% run-off. Another factor will be possible ice jams on rivers and creeks as the water rises and breaks up the ice. Finally, storm drains could be clogged with snow and ice leading to localized flooding on roadways. This rain event will create a big mess in the area and could be very dangerous for people who live in flood prone areas. Stay up to date on the latest from that storm system. 

Great Lakes

The Great Lakes are currently over 86% ice covered and nearing the peak date from last year. In 2014, the Lakes peaked over 92% coverage on March 9, and marked the second highest ice cover ever recorded. With another week of very cold air over the Great Lakes, it is possible that we surpass last years max and make a run at the all-time record. During the second week of March, ice should slowly begin to diminish with more frequent warm periods. *There were reports of chunks of ice still floating on Lake Superior all the way into early June last year and it could be the same situation this year!!

Major Winter Storm

Winter Storm Update

The NWS in Wilmington and Pittsburgh have issued WINTER STORM WARNINGS for much of their forecast areas. Snowfall accumulations of 5-8" are likely near and along the I-70 corridor with lesser amounts to the far north and far south. Very light icing will also occur with the highest ice amounts in Southern Ohio. Sleet and freezing rain will mix in with the snow, at times, especially in Southern Ohio. The longer you stay completely snow, then obviously the more likely you are to see higher snow totals. Mixing with sleet can cut snow accumulations way down (it is my least favorite winter precipitation). Sleet accumulates very slowly and just makes a big mess. Some models suggest that we switch over to plain rain for a period on Saturday, but it will not last long and will taper off quickly. Any wet surfaces could refreeze on Sunday as temperatures fall back into the teens by Sunday evening. This is a very complicated forecast and minor shifts in the storm track should greatly impact the current forecast. Stay tuned for any updates as we get closer to this major winter storm.

Current Snow and Ice Forecast 

NWS in Wilmington, Cleveland and Charleston Alerts

PINK=WINTER STORM WARNINGS 

BLUE=WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

Bitter Cold, Snow and More Bitter Cold

Record Setting Cold

Many records will fall tonight as temperatures dip well below zero. In Central Ohio, lows of -8 to -15 are likely with -20 possible in outlying areas. Southern Ohio will see lows -12 to -19 with locally -25, and Northern Ohio will be similar. These are just air temperatures, not the wind chills! Wind chills will be -20 to -30 Statewide by morning, which is why nearly all schools are canceling classes once again. At these temperatures frostbite can occur in 15-30 minutes. Be sure to stay inside as much as possible and take frequent breaks if you spend any time outside.

Snow

There is an increasing likelihood for a winter storm to impact the State starting late tomorrow night and last into the day on Saturday. The models are still trying to sort out the details and they are having a hard time dealing with low-level cold air. We have to potential to mix with sleet and freezing rain at times and that would significantly cut down on any snow accumulation. Where it stays all snow, 4-7" is possible, but any mixing would cut that back to 1-3". This will likely be a now-cast type of storm where we just have to monitor where the rain/snow line sets up, and go from there. Stay tuned for later forecasts and possible winter storm watches or warnings. I will issue a snowfall forecast some time tomorrow.

More Bitter Cold

After this weekend storm, the cold air will come back and stay. There are no signs of the pattern letting up as we head into the first days of March. Some models are continuing to forecast sub-zero lows all the way up to the morning of March 1st. That is a very long way off, but the fact that the models are being this extreme with the cold is astounding. It is also leading to expansive ice cover on the Great Lakes, as we have now surpassed where we were at this time last year. Over 85% of the lakes are now ice covered! This has implications down the road as well since the Great Lakes can rule our spring and summer weather. With colder than normal lakes, we can expect a cooler than normal spring and summer. I know that is not what you want to hear right now, but just remember, a cool summer can mean temperatures in the upper 70's or low 80's, PERFECT!! Now that you are thinking about spring and summer, don't look or step outside for a month, so you don't get disappointed!

Stay safe tomorrow in the severe cold and pay attention to the developing weekend storm threat.

Winter Storm

Southern Ohio

Confidence is very high at this point for a high impact winter storm for Southern Ohio. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of the southern counties from Hocking County to Clinton County and points south. Winter Storm Watches have also been issued for Perry and Morgan Counties. Winter Weather Advisories are out for areas just north of the warning counties as well.

Central Ohio (I-70 Corridor)

The further south you live relative to I-70, the more likely you are to get accumulating snow. Along I-70, 1-2" is possible, but a slight shift in the storm track would change that. A shift north of just 50 miles would give us a threat for some heavier snow, while a shift south would completely remove us from the any accumulations. It is still too early to say where the storm will actually track, so confidence is low for the I-70 corridor.

Current Alerts 

The pink areas are Winter Storm Warnings, purple/blue are Winter Weather Advisories and the dark blue are Winter Storm Watches.

Current Snowfall Forecast for Monday - Tuesday AM

Lots of Winter on the Way

Thursday-Sunday 

A clipper system with a potent cold front will swing through Ohio tomorrow morning bringing a drop in temperatures, gusty winds and snow squalls. Winds will gust up to 35mph and will result in wind chills down to minus 10 by the evening. Snow could accumulate up to 1 inch in the heavier snow squalls. These will be intense bursts of snow and wind that can quickly reduce visibilities and cause slick roads. Another brief coating to an inch of snow is possible on Saturday and will result in a bitterly cold Sunday morning. Wind chills could approach the dangerous category of approximately -30 by sunrise Sunday! You will want to really limit your time outside on Sunday and make sure you bring pets in as well.

Next Week

The models are indicating that a powerful storm system will develop and move across the country Monday-Wednesday. This will likely bring a swath of heavy snow to someone in the Eastern US, but the poor performance of the models in this time frame is creating forecasting headaches. The models have been all over the place with the location of the snow swath, ranging from Tennessee to Ohio. I will continue to watch the evolution of the models as they fine tune the location of the heaviest snowfall. It also appears that more cold air will arrive after the storm moves through with more sub-zero lows and wind chills.

The next 10 days will be quite active and could result in significant disruptions. More updates to come.

What Is Going On?

Forecast Bust

I would like to take a minute to discuss the busted forecast for this past snow event. This winter has proven to be an extremely difficult one to forecast due to inconsistencies in model forecasts. A couple of days before this storm hit, it had the heaviest axis of snow just south of I-70 through Ohio, but in reality the heaviest snow was centered along and just north of I-80 in far northern Ohio. There was about a 150 mile shift in the storm track and that is why many people south of a line form Bellefontaine to Mount Vernon saw very little accumulation. The forecast did verify for the northern counties where many people received nearly a foot of snow. Basically all this means is that this winter is proving why forecasting snowstorms is a very difficult task! That is why it is important to regularly check back with the forecast and get the latest information.

More Snow Chances

There are some model trends suggesting as much as 1-3" of snow could fall across much of the State Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but based on how this winter has been going, it is far from a sure thing. There is also some indication that a bigger storm could impact the area next Sunday. That is still very far out and is likely to change quite a bit as we get closer to that event. One thing that has not changed is the threat for brutal cold. It is possible that the coldest weather of the season will be here around Valentines Day.

Stay tuned for updates

*I am sorry I have not been as frequent with my updates recently, but I have been busy with school work and that comes first. I will do my best to keep you updated. If you need an update I highly recommend weather.gov for up to date weather information.