A Lot of Winter Ahead

Bitter Cold

The first weather headline of the week will be dominated by the return of cold temperatures. Lows tonight into Monday morning will be in the low single digits with outlying areas dropping below zero. Wind chills of -10 to -15 here in central Ohio with numbers closer to -20 in western and northwestern Ohio. This has prompted WIND CHILL ADVISORIES for much of the state, with the exception of the lake counties in northern Ohio and the far southeast counties. A wind chill advisory means winds will combine with cold temperatures to produce dangerously cold wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can occur if proper precautions are not taken. Just use common sense in this weather and you will be fine. Highs on Monday will only recover to the low teens for most of the area and drop back to the middle single digits for Tuesday morning. We begin to moderate to closer to normal by Wednesday ahead of our next weather system.

Storm #1

The first system of the week will move in on Wednesday and last into very early Thursday morning. At this time it appears the axis of heaviest snow will remain to the south of central Ohio. The southwest corner has the best chance at light to moderate accumulations. A general inch or so seems likely at this point in the Columbus metro. I will continue to monitor that system to see if an adjust north or south occurs, as this would change the snowfall forecast. 

Storm #2

The second system has the potential to be much stronger than the first and consequently have much greater impacts on the region. The timing on this storm is far from set in stone, but the Friday and Saturday time frame is what I am highlighting at this point. The models will continue to go back and forth on a solution, but several runs have shown a trend for accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley and East Coast later this week. I will watch this storm closely over the course of the week with more updates to come, but I wanted to let you know ahead of time so you could keep an eye out for further updates. 

Stay warm and stay tuned for further updates! 

Winter is Finally Here

Sunday Snow

Rain will change over to snow as cold air moves in from the north and west. Temperatures will crash in the Columbus metro area between the hours of 9-11am Sunday morning. We will start in the mid to upper 40's and fall to the lower 30's by noon. Temperatures will continue to slowly fall throughout the day and winds will crank to near 40mph at times. This will lead to low wind chills, blowing snow and a possible rapid freeze. Roads could get quite rough from 10am-4pm on Sunday as road crews will have to work against heavy snow, falling temperatures and gusty winds. Thankfully, this is a Sunday afternoon and shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience. Snow totals around central Ohio should be a fairly widespread 1-2" and this will occur in a short amount of time. This will also be Port Columbus' first measurable snowfall this winter season. This is indeed a record for the latest ever first measurable snowfall.

Monday through Tuesday 

The biggest story of this period will likely be the big change in temperatures from where we have been this winter. Monday morning will be the coldest morning this season by far with wind chills in the single digits below zero. Highs on Monday will struggle to make it to the middle 20's as arctic air takes over. We will warm up to the upper 20's to low 30's on Tuesday ahead of another system. This is more of a clipper like storm and will bring an all snow even overnight Monday into the the first part of Tuesday. Snow totals aren't yet clear, but 1-3" locally 4" seem reasonable for now. These systems typically bring gusty winds and bitterly cold air. Temperatures will be in the single digits by Wednesday morning and the wind chills have the potential to be nearly 10 to 15 degrees below zero. This could warrant a wind chill headlines as we get closer to that event. 

*This map is for the Monday night into Tuesday event. Please ignore the incorrect date in the top left of the image.

Midweek and Beyond

The below normal temperatures will continue and chances for more snow will also be possible. There is a lot on the table right now and this winter could really turn around in a hurry. You cant say you weren't warned about the potential. ;) This winter is just getting started in my opinion. I still think February will be the main event for this season. 

Enjoy the winter weather and STAY SAFE! 

Where's Winter

Christmas Week

As we approach the holidays the weather across the country will get busy. Here in the Ohio Valley rain will be the headline weather story. After receiving over 1.25" of rain overnight, we continue to set the stage for potential high water issues leading up to the holidays. After a brief break today, more rain moves in tomorrow. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are possible. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has areas just to our south in the risk of severe weather for tomorrow, and that includes the risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. The highest risk of tornadoes should remain well to the south across Tennessee, however, I can't rule out a brief spin up this far north. The northward extent of the severe weather will depend on how much instability can make it up here. You should stay alert tomorrow as severe weather outbreaks in December do occur and can be quite dangerous.
Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning will feature another dry period before more rain moves in later Christmas Day. The 26-27 has the potential to bring very heavy rains as a powerful storm lifts north towards the Great Lakes. Everything should begin to clear out around the 30th. Beyond that, the forecasts diverge and confidence decreases immensely.

Rainfall totals over the next 7-10 days will be on the order of 2-6" across the Ohio Valley. This could lead to high water concerns, especially if thunderstorms drop heavy rain in a short amount of time.

Christmas Travel

If you are traveling this Christmas season, be prepared for impacts both on the road and in the air. The western US has huge amounts of snow and is in the midst of their best ski season in years. Expect the resorts to be very busy and travel to be difficult on the snowy roads. Following Christmas, a major storm is likely to impact the nations midsection. Exactly where this sets up is still undetermined, but it is looking increasingly likely that someone from the Texas Panhandle to the northern Plains will see a major snowstorm or blizzard. In the east, it will be all about the rain. This will cause delays at the airports and could result in slower travel on the road, especially if more widespread flooding occurs. Always remember the phrase "turn around, don't drown". Very few places will escape the bad weather this Christmas, but if you are heading to Florida you are in for some unseasonably warm weather with highs across much of the state in the 80's! Wherever you go this holiday season, be safe and have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. 

Where's the Snow?

Even though it is just now the first day of winter, I have been hearing the cries for snow for quite some time now. Everyone is wondering where winter is and whether we will see snow at all this year. There are a few things you should know before you start saying winter is over.

First--The western United States has been getting pummeled with incredible snow since November. Many locations have seen half of what they saw all last year, if not more than last year. This is very good news for them as this helps replenish reservoirs and eases the water crisis. The west has been suffering from below normal snowfall for several years now and will benefit greatly from this deep snow pack. 

Second--We have been spoiled the last few years with intense cold and snow in November and December, and this has made people come to expect the early season winters. The truth is, you can't expect that every year and we were due a mild start. This year has been exceptionally warm with many records falling, but it's not the first warm December we have had and it certainly won't be the last. Believe it or not, last Christmas Day had a high temperature in the mid 60's too. 60 on Christmas here in Columbus isn't extremely rare, even though it may be unpleasant. 

Third--This isn't a "typical" El Nino pattern and we WILL see snow. The meteorologists who continue to stick to the El Nino propaganda are just embarrassing themselves at this point. To say this year is like the last major El Nino is insane. The "typical" El Nino should bring a very dry winter to the Ohio Valley...and with more rain coming this week, that forecast continues to fall apart. As the winter season progresses, and more cold air becomes available, I expect the snow to shift to the east. This could really get ranking in late January into February. Just hold on and be patient, the snow will come. 

High Impact Storm System

Rough Midweek On The Way

Today

A cold front will cross the region this evening with some rain and a line of strong showers. Winds will increase as the front approaches and they could become quite gusty as the main line of showers crosses the area. This should happen between 9-11pm for central Ohio.

Wednesday-Thursday 

A potent storm system will move north toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. As it does so, it will strengthen and bring wind and rain along the way. It is important to stay up to date on this upcoming event because of the possible impacts it could bring. As with every weather event, a range of possibilities are on the table. When this range includes some major impacts, I like to give people a heads up. If things come together just right, we could have some very high wind gusts on Wednesday and Thursday. Some strong showers could also develop and lead to their own damaging winds. Temperatures should drop significantly for Thursday as the storm moves northeast. Heavy rain is also likely, but the exact amounts are not yet known. At this time, confidence is high that much of the area will see at least an inch of rain, but the models differ on how far past an inch we go. Essentially, I just wanted you to be aware of the potential threat of a high impact weather event during the middle of next week. When details become clearer, I will try to update things.

First Frost and Winter Thoughts

Frosty Weekend

Here in the Buckeye State we have seen our first widespread frost and freeze conditions this weekend, and we will see two more nights of lows below freezing statewide. These temperatures should end the growing season for the vast majority of the area. This is great news for allergy sufferers as an end to the growing season would also wipe out all outdoor allergens. A hard freeze is not good news, however, for our fall colors. After lows in the 20's, leaves should begin to rapidly fall off of many trees before they get the chance to change color. We are a couple of weeks ahead of where we were last year in terms of our first 32 degree temperature.

Some folks in northeastern Ohio will indeed see some snowflakes today. Some graupel (the most misunderstood form of precipitation) is also possible where instability showers pop up.

Winter Thoughts

The upcoming winter will be an interesting case study for years to come. We are currently seeing an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and that is influencing a large number of winter forecasts this year. Many meteorologists are comparing this El Niño to the one in 1997 (the last one that was as strong as the one we are currently seeing). There are a few problems with this direct comparison. First, the center of the warmest waters in the Pacific are much farther west compared to 1997. Second, there is a massive warm pool in the northern Pacific, along the west coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. This was nonexistent is 1997. In fact, it was the opposite in 1997! The warm water in the Gulf of Alaska has been in place for several years now. It has had a major impact on our winter weather here in the United States. With warm water in the northern Pacific Ocean, it allows a ridge to be pumped up out  west, thus aiding in more troughs downstream in the east. Basically, this signal points toward warmer weather out west and colder east. If we were in a neutral phase in the Pacific, then that would be a fairly straight forward forecast, but the El Niño is the wild card right now. With it being centered farther west, you would also expect a colder than normal winter across the Eastern US. The reason this winter is so difficult to forecast, is because El Niño's can often deliver the Ohio Valley a warm and dry season. Many forecasters are jumping on that one trend and running with it. I have issues with that plan since all El Niño's are not created equal, and not all result in warm dry winters.

Final Thoughts: I'm trying to wrap it up for you ;) I have spent a lot of time researching the current pattern and major seasonal drivers and have come up with what I expect to see this winter. I am expecting us to have yet another colder and snowier than average winter. This forecast is based on an active southern jet thanks to El Niño, coupled with the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, which should help force colder air down into the Eastern United States. 

***I use the term "forecast" loosely here. This is more of a guidance prediction and not a true forecast since I am not giving specific numbers that can be verified. I am simply stating that I think we will end the winter with, overall, below average temperatures and above normal snowfall. (snowfall average in Columbus, OH is ~28 inches)***


Thanks for reading and enjoy the brief November preview. Also, check out the "Scarlet and Gray Campus Forecasting Team" on Facebook and twitter for up to date forecasts for central Ohio!

New Weather Station

I have installed a new weather station at my house and I have linked it up with Weather Underground.
You can view it on there to get up to date local temperature reading, wind chills, rainfall amounts and wind speeds. I am also trying to get it so it displays at the bottom of my blog posts. We will see how that goes.

Heavy Rain Potential

Rounds of Showers and Storms

Between now and Sunday, the Buckeye State is going to see several rounds of heavy rain. The models are not in full agreement just yet, but some suggest the first round of heavy rain could be  coming by tomorrow morning. Some models also develop additional storms tomorrow afternoon with more heavy rain. If those models are correct, it could set us up for a more serious situation as the ground would become saturated and rivers and creeks would become elevated in advance of another storm system. The models are in pretty good agreement about a fairly potent low pressure system moving in on Saturday and slowly move out on Sunday. This could provide a widespread 1-3" of rain to much of the State. We will have to monitor this potential as we go forward as flooding could become a real concern. Stay tuned for updates.