Christmas Eve

Christmas Eve Storm

Wind

87 out of the 88 counties in Ohio are under some form of a wind alert for this evening and overnight. The only County that is not under anything is Williams County in extreme Northwest Ohio. There are WIND ADVISORIES out for everyone except North-Central Ohio and those along the lake shore, where HIGH WIND WARNINGS have been issued. Wind gusts will range from 40-50mph and could top 60-65 in Northern Ohio. Scattered tree and power line damage is likely with winds of this magnitude.

Rain

A line of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, will traverse across the state this evening. The line should move through the whole State from about 3pm in the west and clear out by 8pm in the far east.  There is a chance of some isolated severe wind gusts with this line and that would suggest gusts topping 58mph. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a MARGINAL threat for damaging winds this evening. Total rainfall will generally be around .50" with a few areas seeing more than that.

Temperatures

We will spike all the way up into the upper 50's to lower 60's this afternoon and then crash all the way back into the 30's overnight after the cold front comes through. Friday and Saturday will not be all that cold with temperatures in the 40's and 50's, but that will the warmest weather for a long time as winter looks to take hold. New Years will be a very cold day across much of the Country!

Enjoy your Christmas! Let it rain?

You Can Dream All You Want

Christmas Storm

The possibility of a White Christmas here in Ohio appears to be slowly slipping away. The storm that will move through here tomorrow and Wednesday will bring a lot of rain and gusty winds, but the moisture should move out before temperatures drop below freezing. Right now I am thinking a few flurries or light snow showers will be the most snow we see Christmas Day. The only exception might be the northeast corner of the State where lake-effect snows may kick in. Air travel will still be heavily impacted on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with very gusty winds across the Midwest and Northeast. This will also make for some rough flights across much of the country.

Christmas to New Years

The pattern looks to become very active with multiple storms moving across the country between Christmas and New Years and there is the potential for one or more of them to be snow makers across the Buckeye State. It also looks to become MUCH colder as we head into 2015 with a chance at sub-zero wind chills at some point around New Years Day.


If we manage to get some snow on the ground following Christmas Day, it would not be a surprise. We have had several snow events in the days following Christmas the past few years. In Dec. 2012 we received over 10" of snow between Christmas and New Years, but we did not have a White Christmas. Dec. 2013 was exceptionally warm leading up to Christmas Day with highs around 70 on the 21&22, but was followed by cold and snow heading into the new year. Although it is disappointing, White Christmases are NOT very common here in Central Ohio and it looks like this year will be no exception.

Travel Troubles

Christmas Week Storm

For those who have to travel this Christmas Season, expect to see widespread delays and cancellations at airports and heavy traffic on the roadways. A MAJOR storm system will impact the Eastern United States starting on Tuesday. This storm will affect nearly every state east of the Mississippi River! Most of the storm will be a heavy rain event, however, areas in Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and parts of Ohio could mix with snow and a few areas could pick up some minor accumulations from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The winds around this storm will be another big story as gusts topping 40mph will be common in the Midwest and Northeast. This will make for some rough flights and can lead to delays across much of the country. The Eastern US is not alone in the rough weather either as the West is getting bombarded with heavy rain and mountain snows. With so much unsettled weather at this time of year, the delays could be a nightmare. Be sure to check with your airline regarding any delays or cancellations.

Christmas to New Years and Beyond

The details are not available at this point, but I will say this; get ready for a wild pattern that is full of COLD, SNOW and FUN! The pattern looks to evolve into a very harsh winter pattern that will take us through the end of the year and continue into the first part of January. Right now the models are painting some extremely cold air for the entire Eastern two-thirds of the Nation. Stay Tuned!

Safe Travels!

White Christmas?

December 18-22

Between now and next Monday, not much will be happening here in the Buckeye State. The storm that had the potential to impact us this weekend appears it will never get its act together and remain weak and to our south. Extreme Southern Ohio might see some stray flurries, but that would be all from this system. *I am keeping my eye on the short-term models as they are trying to paint a brief period of light snow right along the I-70 corridor this afternoon and evening. Nothing in the way of accumulation, but just keep a heads up for the potential for some light snow during the evening rush today*

December 23-27

The all important Christmas forecast is proving to be quite the challenge. The models continue to be all over the place with their handling of a storm system next week. Compared to yesterdays runs, the models have shifted the storm a little further east and less intense. They continue to start us out as rain here in Ohio and ending as some gusty snow showers in the evening Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The models are continuing to insist, however, that the system becomes stationary in Canada keeping us windy with scattered snow flurries and showers for a couple of days. The details of this storm will not be known for several more days and based on what the models were showing for this weekend just a few days ago, and compare it to what is actually going to happen, you can understand why I am hesitant to believe these forecasts! Also, even though snow may be falling on Christmas Day, it will not be considered a White Christmas by the National Weather Service unless there is at least an inch of snow on the ground.

December 27-January 2

The long-range forecasts indicating that the Christmas week system could be the first to signal a major pattern change. The flip back to brutal cold and stormy weather across the Central and Eastern United States appears to be likely for the end of this year and into 2015. I we manage to get any snow cover around here, the cold will be made much worse as the snow cover can act as a refrigerator. But regardless of snow, it appears highly likely that the end of 2014 will be much below normal in the temperature department.

HAVE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS! 

Snow Threats

This Week

Well, at the moment I am not a very happy camper. The models have turned away from the stronger storm scenario for this weekend which drives the precipitation further to the south. Since the storm has still not made it into the central Plains, it is still not 100% known what it will do, but the models seem to be in agreement. Until it gets into the Plains, I will not definitively say how much snow will fall and where.

Christmas Week

The models are in very good agreement for next week. As of right now, it appears that a major storm will develop early next week and then track north through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes. If we were to take the current runs of the forecast models literally, here in the State of Ohio we would start off as some rain and wind for  Christmas Eve day. As the storm really cranks up, colder air would be pulled in, and it could be scenario where Cincinnati changes over to snow before Cleveland believe it or not, but the entire State would change over to all snow and wind over night Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day. *Despite model agreement, this is still a week away and the details are still far from being set in stone. What we need to take away from this is that someone will likely see a snowstorm on or around Christmas and it will likely have MAJOR travel impacts.*

Summary

• This weekends "storm" has the greatest potential of bringing light snow to Southern Ohio, with a lower risk the further north you live. 
• Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will feature a major storm, will it be rain or snow is yet to be determined! (Fingers crossed for some snow!)
• Cold weather is on its way for Christmas week and beyond. 

What Now...?

Where We Have Been

After a November that ranked as a top 15 coldest November for the State of Ohio, December has been relatively benign. We have seen what is known as a "zonal flow" for the first part of the month and that helps to bring in air from the Pacific and give us clouds and about average temperatures. As of right now, December is averaging above normal rainfall (+0.54") and slightly below normal temperatures (-0.4) here in Central Ohio. We have seen just a trace of snow on one day this month compared to the 4.1" of snow in November. By this date last December, Columbus had already had 9" of snow! This weather pattern was expected, however, so do not worry. WINTER WILL COME!

Where We Are Going

The pattern is shaping up to be what looks like a very active end to the month. The forecast models have been showing this for several runs now. There is still a great amount of uncertainty going forward as each storm system will prove to have its own challenges. However, the models seem to agree that we will begin to get colder with an active storm track during the week of Christmas and continuing into January. This pattern change also fits with what was expected by the analog packages, which look at similar patterns in years past. This year is looking a lot like 2002 when we had a mild and calm December across much of the country, but a major snowstorm around Christmas was the start of a much colder and snowier pattern. I am not saying a snowstorm will hit on Christmas, but we will have to pay close attention to the weather over the coming weeks as we start to really ramp things up. A white Christmas is still on the table for many people across the United States, so don't give up hope! After a brief break from our early winter weather, things will turn much colder and snowier just in time for Christmas and New Years! 

If there is any type of winter weather threat, I will let you know as soon as I can. I will closely monitor the latest forecasts and update things accordingly. When we get a little closer, I will be able to more accurately depict who will see a white Christmas and I will also do a larger scale forecast for those of you traveling this holiday season. 

This is just my little soapbox reminder: a white Christmas isn't a necessity to celebrate Jesus' birth! :) 

MERRY CHRISTMAS

Freezing Rain Advisory

Slick Morning Commute On Tap

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY for much of Central and Southern Ohio. The advisory will begin at 7am and continue to 1pm tomorrow morning. A light glaze of ice is expected and this will lead to hazardous driving conditions and create slick spots on sidewalks. Freezing rain is the most dangerous form of wintry precipitation since it will coat virtually everything in ice. Be prepared for travel delays in the morning and the potential for numerous accidents. The last time we had a light glaze of ice here in Columbus was the morning of the Indiana vs. Ohio State football game and it resulted in many road closures and a traffic headache. It might also be a good idea to pull your wipers off of the windshield, if you park outside, to avoid them freezing to the windshield.

PLEASE DRIVE WITH CAUTION IN THE MORNING! 

I will update you if anything changes