Is Winter Almost Over?

Rest of the Week

We will have bitter cold through mid-week with moderating temperatures by the weekend. Some models are saying that we could pouch 40 on Saturday with maybe some rain and snow mix. The GFS model (American) says we could get a decent snow event this weekend from late Friday to Sunday Morning. The European model is going toward a warmer soul ton with much less accumulation. Finally the Canadian model is in line with the American model and tries to bring another 3-6" snow event in here. I will be gone over the weekend up in Michigan so we will probably get hit my a major snowstorm, since that always happens when I'm not here! :) 

Next Week

All the models are now in agreement for next week and have been fairly consistent for multiple runs. Every one of them is developing a monster snowstorm and moving it up the Appalachian Mountains. For those who live in Ohio, Kentucky and Michigan this is the number one storm track for heavy snows. The one thing the models are differing on is the intensity of the storm, this leads to some fairly significant snowfall changes. 

Models Forecast Snow Totals

European is stronger and slightly further south=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 3-6", Central Ohio gets 6-12" and Southern Ohio and Kentucky get 12"+. 

GFS is a flatter solution and results in lighter snow amounts=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 3-5", Central Ohio gets 5-10" and Southern Ohio and Kentucky get 4-6". 

Canadian is the strongest model of them all=== Southern Michigan and Northern Ohio get 8-15", Central Ohio gets 8-12", Southern Ohio gets 1-4" and Kentucky gets less than an inch. 

As you can see there are some slight variations except in Central Ohio, here a significant snow event appears likely. This is still more than a week away and can/will change as we get closer, However, the treat of high impact event appears likely and could impact schools and travel plans. 

February/Rest of Winter

I continue to hear complaints about how long and unrelenting this wirer has been and many people are asking when it is going to end. Well, February does not look like an end to winter, with the potential for heavy snows and continued cold across the entire Midwest and shifting back into the Plains States. 

Just remember, this winter is rare and very impressive. This is one of the winters you can be proud to have survived and you call tell your kids and grand kids about it. Enjoy it while it lasts and make the best of what we have, after all it is still JANUARY. 

I do in fact see an end in sight. March is showing early indications of being above normal temperature wise. This will likely lead to a quick flip from winter to spring and could make for an interesting severe weather season. 

As always stay safe in this cold, and I will continue to monitor this weekend and next weeks snowstorms!

Monday through Wednesday Update

Early Monday morning we will get a quick inch of snow (3-7am). When the cold front comes through, wind will shift around to the northwest and gust up to 35-40mph. This will also bring a rapid drop in temperatures and result in wind chills of 10-15 below zero by morning. Roads could be quite slick for the morning commute so I expect numerous school delays around Central Ohio. 

Monday afternoon and evening will feature falling temperatures and dangerous wind chills. By the afternoon a WIND CHILL WARNING goes into effect for wind chills ranging from minus 25 to minus 40! This will stay in effect until Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the year thus far, with air temperature struggling to get above zero in the afternoon and lows of 10-20 below zero. In fact, one model shows us going as low as minus 24! If that were to verify, then Columbus Ohio would set a new ALL TIME record low which is currently minus 22 set in 1994. 

For Tuesday night and Wednesday a WIND CHILL WATCH will take over and will likely be upgraded to a warning as we get closer in time. This watch is in effect for wind chills as low as minus 30 again Wednesday morning. This is likely to be another day that many schools decide to throw in the towel. 

By later in the week and next weekend, our temperatures will begin to moderate but will still remain below average. Another snow event appears likely for some part of Ohio by Saturday. The details still have yet to be ironed out. There are also indication that we could be in for a significant snow storm some time next week, but that is still very far out and I will continue to watch that situation. 

P.S.

Just to clarify what a wind chill is…

Wind chill is a mathematical calculation of what humans feel as a result of very cold air and gusty winds carrying away any left over heat from our body. Wind chill temperatures DO NOT impact things such as cars, buildings, power lines, water or plant life. Only the actual air temperature has an effect these things. Never the less, WE are impacted by wind chill and you really do need to be careful the next three days as frostbite and hypothermia can occur in less than 15min. 

Is this "normal"?!?!

It is incredibly frustrating to hear people saying that this is the new normal. Many school principals and superintendents all over franklin county, for some reason think extreme cold is "normal". I would like to take the time to explain just how rare this weather is.

Multiple mornings with air temperatures below zero in one winter is not normal. Despite what you may think, it is in fact rare for Columbus Ohio to see sub-zero nights multiple times in one winter, let alone one month.

Wind chill readings below zero are not all that uncommon in central Ohio, however, it goes back to the unprecedented prequency at which they are occurring this season. With days on end with wind chills as low as minus 10 and sometimes as low as minus 25-30, this winter is exceptionally cold.

Snow fall is even above average this year, although it is taking a back seat to the cold weather.

WHAT IS GOING ON! 

I just don't understand how people can think this is normal winter weather. Do people forget last year and the year before that, this quickly. We had not had a sub-zero night in 3 years before this winter. It is very difficult for meteorologist to convey the severity of events, such as this one, to the public when school officials try to downplay the impacts. To say this is the new normal is an ignorant and frankly dangerous thing to say as people will not take the impacts as seriously as they should.

Finally, if this was just like every other winter, then why are water mains breaking, pipes bursting energy costs skyrocketing. The answer this question is because this extraordinary cold is not normal and should not be downplayed by school officials anywhere.

Weather update

Tonight through Saturday morning will feature snowfall totals of 3-6" and very gusty winds. This will lead to very bad road conditions, poor visibility (possibly under 1/4 mile at times) and considerable blowing and drifting snow. 

Sunday will feature more snow and wind, with totals around 2". 

Sunday night through Wednesday morning will feature the coldest  air of the winter with lows down to minus 15 and wind chills bottoming out at a staggering minus 40! The timing of the coldest weather will be Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

PLEASE STAY SAFE TONIGHT INTO NEXT!

I do expect that localized power outages next week due to extreme demand for electricity as well as a strain on the infrastructure from the wind and cold. 

A Winter to Remember

Friday

Tomorrow morning will be another very cold one with wind chills down to minus 15-20. 

Late at night Friday into early Saturday morning, snow will move in with about an inch during the night. 

Winds on Friday will be quite gusty with sustained winds of 20-30mph gusting to 40-45! This could blow around the snow that is already on the ground and will blow the new snow we get overnight also. 

Saturday

Snow will continue into the early afternoon with an additional 2-4" likely. This will bring totals for the event up to around 3-5". 

Winds will continue to be gusty on Saturday leading to continued blowing and drifting snow. 

The peak snowfall intensity will probably be in the very early hours on Saturday morning (2am-6am).

Sunday and Beyond  

Yet another clipper system will likely come through the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Depending on the exact track of this system, we could see fairly significant accumulations of 4-6". At this time I do not think we will be in the heaviest snow swath, but instead end up with another 1-3". Northern Ohio and Southern Michigan will likely see the most snow Sunday night and Monday morning. 

Next week will be brutally cold once again with actual low temperatures in the minus teens and highs in the low single digits. Wind chill have the potential to drop down as low as minus 35 on a couple mornings with multiple mornings seeing wind chills to minus 15 or colder. 

The extended period of harsh temperatures will start to cause major issues including frozen pipes, power failure and car problems. The weekend will see a "warm up" into the 20's but other than that, we will have nearly 2 weeks of temperatures below 20 and lows frequently below 0. With such a high demand for electricity, combined with wind and snow, power outages will be possible and could be incredibly  dangerous. 

There is very little relief in the foreseeable future and the next 10 days, at least, will feature some of the worst winter weather possible in our area. 

Bitter Cold for the Next 10 Days

Tonight and Tomorrow Morning

The wind chills will drop to between 15 and 20 below zero tonight and by morning it will be around 10 below. These wind chills should result in a two-hour delay for most schools since wind chills will recover to -5 to 5 by midday. 

Wednesday to Friday

Another clipper will come in late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This will bring 1-2" of snow once again along with some gusty winds. The air behind that system will be bitterly cold also with highs Thursday staying in the low teens and lows down to -5. Friday morning could feature another two-hour delay since wind chills will likely approach minus 15 again. 

Weekend Through Next Week

On Saturday, another snow event will come in with possibly 1-3". Next week will be even colder than this week with many nights well below zero and wind chills possibly approaching minus 25 to minus 35 for a few mornings. I do think we will exceed our snow day allowance by the end of next week due to an extended period of harsh temperatures. Probably at least two snow days just next week.  

Snow and Cold

Snow Update

Our winter weather advisory has been modified and will now go into effect at 9 pm tonight. We should stay all rain for today with temperatures into the lower 40's. By Monday night and Tuesday morning our wind chills will be about 80 degrees colder than today's high temperature!

The current forecast is for 1-3" of snow, however, I am still not sure that we will get that much. Many of the forecast models show precipitation ending before our temperatures drop below freezing. When we do start to drop below freezing our temperatures will fall for more than 24 hours straight until they bottom out Monday night around -18. Winds will also pick up and this could blow around any snow that we do get. A flash freeze is also a possibility since we will get rain and snow melt today followed by brutal cold.

Summary

Snow totals= 1 to locally 3 inches (Northwest Ohio will see 6-12" while Southeastern Ohio gets Less than 1") 

Cold= Actual air temperatures in the mid-teens below zero Monday night and Tuesday Morning. Temperatures during the day Monday will fall into the single digits below zero. 

Wind Chills= Between -25 and -40 from midday Monday to Tuesday night. Coldest wind chills will occur Monday night and Tuesday morning. 

School?= NO ;) 

Brutal Cold and Snow Potential

Snow Potential

As of now, we are under a Winter Weather Advisory from Sunday morning to early Monday morning. This advisory is in effect for 2-4 inches of snow along with gusty winds which will result in blowing and drifting.

Wilmington's current snow forecast

    I am not confident that Columbus and surrounding suburbs will see that much snow accumulation. Areas on the western side of Franklin county have a better chance of this accumulation, while the east side is likely to see much less with totals of 1, to maybe 2 inches by Monday morning. The reason I think the snow totals will be low is because our temperatures will rise to the upper 30's to near 40 by Sunday afternoon resulting in a change over to all rain. The areas that change over to rain completely will likely see minor snow accumulations during Sunday night. Southeastern Ohio will miss out on almost all of the snow and should stay rain most of the day and evening. Northern and Western Ohio will be in the sweet spot with up to 12" possible with potentially blizzard like conditions. 

The forecast confidence in regards to the snow is currently low because a shift in the storm track by just 50 miles would greatly impact our snowfall forecast. If the storm tracks further east, we will likely see upwards of a half a foot in central Ohio, while a shift to the west will result in nearly zero accumulation and all rain. 

I WILL UPDATE THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING AROUND 8 AM. 

Incredibly Cold

The forecast confidence for Monday and Tuesday is very high. I am anticipating many record lows to be set along with the coldest air in 20 years. This cold will impact the entire State of Ohio and much of the Eastern and Central United States. Wind Chills in Northern Alabama could dip all the way down to minus 20!!!  Here in Ohio I do expect our temperatures to drop to near 20 below zero with wind chills between 30-40 below. This kind of cold can result in frostbite in less than 10 minutes, hypothermia and can even be deadly if the proper precautions are not taken. 

We are under a Wind Chill Warning from tomorrow night through Tuesday afternoon. This warning is rare for our area (last issued in January of 2009) and is warning us of wind chills to -40.

The timing of the cold will result in an extended winter break/ long weekend for all schools in central Ohio, as I am 100% sure that every school district will cancel both Monday and Tuesday. On Friday, Gahanna and Worthington (everyone else was still on winter break) closed due to wind chills approaching -10, so if that was too cold, then Monday and Tuesday will be more than enough to give everyone two snow days. 

Please do not take this cold lightly! You may not think it will be that bad, but it has been 20 years since temperature of this magnitude have occurred and your body is not able to handle it. If you do have to be outside cover as much skin as possible and dress in layers. If possible, postpone all outdoor activities until Wednesday, as our temperatures will begin moderating. 

Stay Safe, I will update again Sunday morning!!

Widespread winter weather alerts in the United States