Heavy Rain Potential

Rounds of Showers and Storms

Between now and Sunday, the Buckeye State is going to see several rounds of heavy rain. The models are not in full agreement just yet, but some suggest the first round of heavy rain could be  coming by tomorrow morning. Some models also develop additional storms tomorrow afternoon with more heavy rain. If those models are correct, it could set us up for a more serious situation as the ground would become saturated and rivers and creeks would become elevated in advance of another storm system. The models are in pretty good agreement about a fairly potent low pressure system moving in on Saturday and slowly move out on Sunday. This could provide a widespread 1-3" of rain to much of the State. We will have to monitor this potential as we go forward as flooding could become a real concern. Stay tuned for updates.

Another Reminder

The Dreaded Climate Change....

Recently yet another world leader is calling for immediate action to combat man made climate change. These wonderful calls to action seem to be occurring more frequently each year. They demand action be taken by governments all over the world to stop our extreme weather. I see just a few issues with these demands.

#1...Who Makes the Demands

Each time there is some type of weather phenomenon that results in destruction of property, crops or the loss of human life, someone undoubtedly will blame it on climate change. A MAJOR problem with this is the fact that many of these people are self appointed experts. I don't know if you realize this, but I am spending a lot of money and time to become an actual expert in this field. The weather and our climate is an extremely complex and mysterious system that has more power than we ever will. It has so many secretes that we have yet to discover and yet every politician, president, celebrity, and apparently now the Pope are instantly experts in this complex science. It gets even more blurred when people like Bill Nye (not a meteorologist or climatologist) make statements about climate change, saying it is an accepted scientific fact and that all "deniers" are ignorant and blind. He is a scientist after all, so doesn't he know what he's talking about? He couldn't be more clueless! He hasn't the slightest idea how weather and climate patterns work and he has been caught numerous times failing to answer basic questions about the field of study. So, when you hear someone demanding something be done about climate change, make sure you think about and determine whether they even know what they are talking about. 

#2...Is Extreme Weather New?

WE ARE NOT THE FIRST PEOPLE TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS. Don't ever let that thought creep into your mind. The climate is, by definition, an average of extremes. Heat waves, cold snaps, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind events, have all occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. But aren't they getting more frequent and intense? NOPE. That's the simple answer. And I know a lot people just don't believe that because, after all, the world leaders and politicians know everything and they say it's getting worse. If you simply look at the facts in front of you, you would find that tornado frequency in the United States (the country with the most tornadoes on average across the world) has seen three years with well below normal tornado counts and even a decrease in intense tornado numbers. This is not simply a decrease from the very active 2011 season, but a drop-off that has set records for the least tornadoes ever recorded in a single year for three years in a row. This year we remain well below normal and continue to see less intense tornadoes. Hurricanes are also not more frequent or intense. We haven't seen a major hurricane make landfall in the US since 2005...that's the longest stretch in recorded history. Florida has also set a record for the longest period between hurricane landfalls. The Eastern Pacific has been far more active than the Atlantic ocean, but this is explained by the current El Niño and warmer SST. It is not, however, unusual or caused by humans. Flooding (come on) is NOT more frequent or intense either. Texas just ended a 5 year drought and now people are saying that the flooding in Texas is proof that climate change is happening? Really? Come on, that is not a logical argument. Drought and flood cycles in the Plain States (and all over the world) are a natural occurrence and has been documented as such for many decades. The drought wasn't the worst they have seen and it also isn't the last one they will have. It will happen again and they will flood again, it's just the way it goes. Just look at California, they are currently in year 4 of a severe drought, but it WILL NOT last forever. They are right next to the largest water source on the planet and it will drive moisture into the State eventually. Just be patient and stop wasting the water you do have on your lawns, pools and golf courses!! 

#3...Missing Data

This will be my last category just so I don't end up writing a novel. Missing data is a huge problem when it comes to studying the climate. Reliable weather records only go back to the late 1800's at best and even those are sparse. The ice cores that are pulled out of the arctic are also a problem because we don't know how long CO2 lasts in the ice. We can't say with absolute certainty that those are accurate measurements of past CO2 levels and we have nothing to accurately computer them to. Not to mention CO2 is such a small part of our atmosphere that even with the recent changes in its levels, the impacts are undetectable. Water vapor is a far more dangerous and influential greenhouse gas than CO2 is, so you stop worrying about that too. 

I will just leave it at that for now. As you can tell, I am very passionate about this topic and get really offended when people with power seem to become experts in the field that I am studying so hard for. They have a louder voice than I do, but hopefully people will use their common sense when it comes to the weather and just leave it to the experts to discuss. If something is going on that you need to know about, I will certainly keep you updated. The weather we experience is crazy and powerful and that is the way it always has been and how it always will be. Thanks for reading. 

P.S.

Be on alert for severe storms across the entire Buckeye State today with damaging winds and flooding rainfall being the main concerns. 

Summer Post #1

After a two month long hiatus from my blog, I am back to update things as we get closer to summer. I hope to update regularly during the summer and keep everyone up to date during severe weather situations. 

Broad Updates 

Dry Conditions

Even though we had some rain earlier this month, many areas are still running below normal on rainfall for the month and year. Southern Ohio seems to be fairing the worst, with many areas now considered to be "abnormally dry" by the National Drought Monitor. Being that it is early June, it's not too much of a concern and we are not that far behind. However, if this continues, it can be a difficult thing to get out of. As we head deeper into the summer months, our evaporation rates increase dramatically and this requires more frequent and soaking rains to avoid drought. If we continue to be dry, hotter weather can be expected and that only makes drought conditions worse. At this point, I'm not ready to say we are heading into a hot dry summer, but it is something to monitor as we go forward. 

Near-Term Forecast

This week will feature the first real run at 90 degrees in a long time. Areas in Central and Southern Ohio are likely to see several days in a row with highs in the low 90's while Northern Ohio remains in the 80's. Heat Index values will nudge up into the mid 90's for the southern 2/3 of the state as well. This is the first sign of real summer heat this year and it is important to remember to stay hydrated and limit your time outside during the peak heating times. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are most likely in young children and the elderly with this type of low grade heat. Our next chance of a widespread rain will come later this week and into the weekend. Next week also looks like it will stay on the warm side with highs in the upper 80's most days with frequent thunderstorm chances. Those who see repeat rainfall events could see localized flooding issues, but widespread flooding is not likely at this time. 

Thunderstorm Chances

The heat set-up that is going to be taking place next week is one that can develop thunderstorm complexes that move into our area. This is known as the ring of fire because complexes form on the rim of the heat and ride along it, thriving off of the fuel from the excessive heat. The southeast will likely be baking next week with some of the hottest weather in a coupe years and this could set us up for some severe weather. These events are difficult to forecast and often sneak up on forecasters, but it is something we will be monitoring very closely. If severe weather threatens next week, be sure to take it seriously and just stay up to date with your local forecasts. I will try to provide as much advanced warning as possible. For the most up to date information, follow me on twitter @JustinSolze. 

Here is some older information on the plains flooding situation. 

**I meant to post this a few weeks ago, but I got busy. Most of this information is old, but I still wanted to mention it.** 

Southern Plains Flooding

As I'm sure many of you have heard, the Southern Plains (Texas and Oklahoma in particular) have had amazing amounts of rainfall this month. This is a classic case of too much of a good thing! Texas and Oklahoma had been stuck in a 5 year long drought that was taking a huge toll on the area water supplies and agriculture industry. They have effectively ended that drought in a months time, with many areas in Northeast Texas and Southern Oklahoma seeing over a foot of rain and locally over two feet of rain! All of that water has to go somewhere and that resulted in catastrophic and and deadly flooding. Some rivers rose to their highest levels ever recorded and destroyed hundreds of homes in the process. One river in particular recorded a three hour period where it rose over 30 feet! You cannot prepare or protect against a flash flood of that magnitude and that is why some people unfortunately lost their lives. Another statistic out of this flooding that is absolutely amazing is that if you were to contain all of the rain that has fallen in the Houston area this month, you would have enough water to satisfy New York City's water needs for 7 YEARS. It's very difficult to put the amount of rainfall into perspective, but I think that does a good job of describing just how much rain Texas and Oklahoma have seen. The good news, now, is they are going to have a period to dry out over the next week or so, and this will help aid as the clean-up efforts continue.