Where's Winter

Christmas Week

As we approach the holidays the weather across the country will get busy. Here in the Ohio Valley rain will be the headline weather story. After receiving over 1.25" of rain overnight, we continue to set the stage for potential high water issues leading up to the holidays. After a brief break today, more rain moves in tomorrow. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are possible. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has areas just to our south in the risk of severe weather for tomorrow, and that includes the risk of damaging winds and tornadoes. The highest risk of tornadoes should remain well to the south across Tennessee, however, I can't rule out a brief spin up this far north. The northward extent of the severe weather will depend on how much instability can make it up here. You should stay alert tomorrow as severe weather outbreaks in December do occur and can be quite dangerous.
Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning will feature another dry period before more rain moves in later Christmas Day. The 26-27 has the potential to bring very heavy rains as a powerful storm lifts north towards the Great Lakes. Everything should begin to clear out around the 30th. Beyond that, the forecasts diverge and confidence decreases immensely.

Rainfall totals over the next 7-10 days will be on the order of 2-6" across the Ohio Valley. This could lead to high water concerns, especially if thunderstorms drop heavy rain in a short amount of time.

Christmas Travel

If you are traveling this Christmas season, be prepared for impacts both on the road and in the air. The western US has huge amounts of snow and is in the midst of their best ski season in years. Expect the resorts to be very busy and travel to be difficult on the snowy roads. Following Christmas, a major storm is likely to impact the nations midsection. Exactly where this sets up is still undetermined, but it is looking increasingly likely that someone from the Texas Panhandle to the northern Plains will see a major snowstorm or blizzard. In the east, it will be all about the rain. This will cause delays at the airports and could result in slower travel on the road, especially if more widespread flooding occurs. Always remember the phrase "turn around, don't drown". Very few places will escape the bad weather this Christmas, but if you are heading to Florida you are in for some unseasonably warm weather with highs across much of the state in the 80's! Wherever you go this holiday season, be safe and have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. 

Where's the Snow?

Even though it is just now the first day of winter, I have been hearing the cries for snow for quite some time now. Everyone is wondering where winter is and whether we will see snow at all this year. There are a few things you should know before you start saying winter is over.

First--The western United States has been getting pummeled with incredible snow since November. Many locations have seen half of what they saw all last year, if not more than last year. This is very good news for them as this helps replenish reservoirs and eases the water crisis. The west has been suffering from below normal snowfall for several years now and will benefit greatly from this deep snow pack. 

Second--We have been spoiled the last few years with intense cold and snow in November and December, and this has made people come to expect the early season winters. The truth is, you can't expect that every year and we were due a mild start. This year has been exceptionally warm with many records falling, but it's not the first warm December we have had and it certainly won't be the last. Believe it or not, last Christmas Day had a high temperature in the mid 60's too. 60 on Christmas here in Columbus isn't extremely rare, even though it may be unpleasant. 

Third--This isn't a "typical" El Nino pattern and we WILL see snow. The meteorologists who continue to stick to the El Nino propaganda are just embarrassing themselves at this point. To say this year is like the last major El Nino is insane. The "typical" El Nino should bring a very dry winter to the Ohio Valley...and with more rain coming this week, that forecast continues to fall apart. As the winter season progresses, and more cold air becomes available, I expect the snow to shift to the east. This could really get ranking in late January into February. Just hold on and be patient, the snow will come. 

High Impact Storm System

Rough Midweek On The Way

Today

A cold front will cross the region this evening with some rain and a line of strong showers. Winds will increase as the front approaches and they could become quite gusty as the main line of showers crosses the area. This should happen between 9-11pm for central Ohio.

Wednesday-Thursday 

A potent storm system will move north toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. As it does so, it will strengthen and bring wind and rain along the way. It is important to stay up to date on this upcoming event because of the possible impacts it could bring. As with every weather event, a range of possibilities are on the table. When this range includes some major impacts, I like to give people a heads up. If things come together just right, we could have some very high wind gusts on Wednesday and Thursday. Some strong showers could also develop and lead to their own damaging winds. Temperatures should drop significantly for Thursday as the storm moves northeast. Heavy rain is also likely, but the exact amounts are not yet known. At this time, confidence is high that much of the area will see at least an inch of rain, but the models differ on how far past an inch we go. Essentially, I just wanted you to be aware of the potential threat of a high impact weather event during the middle of next week. When details become clearer, I will try to update things.

First Frost and Winter Thoughts

Frosty Weekend

Here in the Buckeye State we have seen our first widespread frost and freeze conditions this weekend, and we will see two more nights of lows below freezing statewide. These temperatures should end the growing season for the vast majority of the area. This is great news for allergy sufferers as an end to the growing season would also wipe out all outdoor allergens. A hard freeze is not good news, however, for our fall colors. After lows in the 20's, leaves should begin to rapidly fall off of many trees before they get the chance to change color. We are a couple of weeks ahead of where we were last year in terms of our first 32 degree temperature.

Some folks in northeastern Ohio will indeed see some snowflakes today. Some graupel (the most misunderstood form of precipitation) is also possible where instability showers pop up.

Winter Thoughts

The upcoming winter will be an interesting case study for years to come. We are currently seeing an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and that is influencing a large number of winter forecasts this year. Many meteorologists are comparing this El Niño to the one in 1997 (the last one that was as strong as the one we are currently seeing). There are a few problems with this direct comparison. First, the center of the warmest waters in the Pacific are much farther west compared to 1997. Second, there is a massive warm pool in the northern Pacific, along the west coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. This was nonexistent is 1997. In fact, it was the opposite in 1997! The warm water in the Gulf of Alaska has been in place for several years now. It has had a major impact on our winter weather here in the United States. With warm water in the northern Pacific Ocean, it allows a ridge to be pumped up out  west, thus aiding in more troughs downstream in the east. Basically, this signal points toward warmer weather out west and colder east. If we were in a neutral phase in the Pacific, then that would be a fairly straight forward forecast, but the El Niño is the wild card right now. With it being centered farther west, you would also expect a colder than normal winter across the Eastern US. The reason this winter is so difficult to forecast, is because El Niño's can often deliver the Ohio Valley a warm and dry season. Many forecasters are jumping on that one trend and running with it. I have issues with that plan since all El Niño's are not created equal, and not all result in warm dry winters.

Final Thoughts: I'm trying to wrap it up for you ;) I have spent a lot of time researching the current pattern and major seasonal drivers and have come up with what I expect to see this winter. I am expecting us to have yet another colder and snowier than average winter. This forecast is based on an active southern jet thanks to El Niño, coupled with the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, which should help force colder air down into the Eastern United States. 

***I use the term "forecast" loosely here. This is more of a guidance prediction and not a true forecast since I am not giving specific numbers that can be verified. I am simply stating that I think we will end the winter with, overall, below average temperatures and above normal snowfall. (snowfall average in Columbus, OH is ~28 inches)***


Thanks for reading and enjoy the brief November preview. Also, check out the "Scarlet and Gray Campus Forecasting Team" on Facebook and twitter for up to date forecasts for central Ohio!

New Weather Station

I have installed a new weather station at my house and I have linked it up with Weather Underground.
You can view it on there to get up to date local temperature reading, wind chills, rainfall amounts and wind speeds. I am also trying to get it so it displays at the bottom of my blog posts. We will see how that goes.

Heavy Rain Potential

Rounds of Showers and Storms

Between now and Sunday, the Buckeye State is going to see several rounds of heavy rain. The models are not in full agreement just yet, but some suggest the first round of heavy rain could be  coming by tomorrow morning. Some models also develop additional storms tomorrow afternoon with more heavy rain. If those models are correct, it could set us up for a more serious situation as the ground would become saturated and rivers and creeks would become elevated in advance of another storm system. The models are in pretty good agreement about a fairly potent low pressure system moving in on Saturday and slowly move out on Sunday. This could provide a widespread 1-3" of rain to much of the State. We will have to monitor this potential as we go forward as flooding could become a real concern. Stay tuned for updates.

Another Reminder

The Dreaded Climate Change....

Recently yet another world leader is calling for immediate action to combat man made climate change. These wonderful calls to action seem to be occurring more frequently each year. They demand action be taken by governments all over the world to stop our extreme weather. I see just a few issues with these demands.

#1...Who Makes the Demands

Each time there is some type of weather phenomenon that results in destruction of property, crops or the loss of human life, someone undoubtedly will blame it on climate change. A MAJOR problem with this is the fact that many of these people are self appointed experts. I don't know if you realize this, but I am spending a lot of money and time to become an actual expert in this field. The weather and our climate is an extremely complex and mysterious system that has more power than we ever will. It has so many secretes that we have yet to discover and yet every politician, president, celebrity, and apparently now the Pope are instantly experts in this complex science. It gets even more blurred when people like Bill Nye (not a meteorologist or climatologist) make statements about climate change, saying it is an accepted scientific fact and that all "deniers" are ignorant and blind. He is a scientist after all, so doesn't he know what he's talking about? He couldn't be more clueless! He hasn't the slightest idea how weather and climate patterns work and he has been caught numerous times failing to answer basic questions about the field of study. So, when you hear someone demanding something be done about climate change, make sure you think about and determine whether they even know what they are talking about. 

#2...Is Extreme Weather New?

WE ARE NOT THE FIRST PEOPLE TO EXPERIENCE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS. Don't ever let that thought creep into your mind. The climate is, by definition, an average of extremes. Heat waves, cold snaps, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind events, have all occurred in the past and will continue to occur in the future. But aren't they getting more frequent and intense? NOPE. That's the simple answer. And I know a lot people just don't believe that because, after all, the world leaders and politicians know everything and they say it's getting worse. If you simply look at the facts in front of you, you would find that tornado frequency in the United States (the country with the most tornadoes on average across the world) has seen three years with well below normal tornado counts and even a decrease in intense tornado numbers. This is not simply a decrease from the very active 2011 season, but a drop-off that has set records for the least tornadoes ever recorded in a single year for three years in a row. This year we remain well below normal and continue to see less intense tornadoes. Hurricanes are also not more frequent or intense. We haven't seen a major hurricane make landfall in the US since 2005...that's the longest stretch in recorded history. Florida has also set a record for the longest period between hurricane landfalls. The Eastern Pacific has been far more active than the Atlantic ocean, but this is explained by the current El Niño and warmer SST. It is not, however, unusual or caused by humans. Flooding (come on) is NOT more frequent or intense either. Texas just ended a 5 year drought and now people are saying that the flooding in Texas is proof that climate change is happening? Really? Come on, that is not a logical argument. Drought and flood cycles in the Plain States (and all over the world) are a natural occurrence and has been documented as such for many decades. The drought wasn't the worst they have seen and it also isn't the last one they will have. It will happen again and they will flood again, it's just the way it goes. Just look at California, they are currently in year 4 of a severe drought, but it WILL NOT last forever. They are right next to the largest water source on the planet and it will drive moisture into the State eventually. Just be patient and stop wasting the water you do have on your lawns, pools and golf courses!! 

#3...Missing Data

This will be my last category just so I don't end up writing a novel. Missing data is a huge problem when it comes to studying the climate. Reliable weather records only go back to the late 1800's at best and even those are sparse. The ice cores that are pulled out of the arctic are also a problem because we don't know how long CO2 lasts in the ice. We can't say with absolute certainty that those are accurate measurements of past CO2 levels and we have nothing to accurately computer them to. Not to mention CO2 is such a small part of our atmosphere that even with the recent changes in its levels, the impacts are undetectable. Water vapor is a far more dangerous and influential greenhouse gas than CO2 is, so you stop worrying about that too. 

I will just leave it at that for now. As you can tell, I am very passionate about this topic and get really offended when people with power seem to become experts in the field that I am studying so hard for. They have a louder voice than I do, but hopefully people will use their common sense when it comes to the weather and just leave it to the experts to discuss. If something is going on that you need to know about, I will certainly keep you updated. The weather we experience is crazy and powerful and that is the way it always has been and how it always will be. Thanks for reading. 

P.S.

Be on alert for severe storms across the entire Buckeye State today with damaging winds and flooding rainfall being the main concerns. 

Summer Post #1

After a two month long hiatus from my blog, I am back to update things as we get closer to summer. I hope to update regularly during the summer and keep everyone up to date during severe weather situations. 

Broad Updates 

Dry Conditions

Even though we had some rain earlier this month, many areas are still running below normal on rainfall for the month and year. Southern Ohio seems to be fairing the worst, with many areas now considered to be "abnormally dry" by the National Drought Monitor. Being that it is early June, it's not too much of a concern and we are not that far behind. However, if this continues, it can be a difficult thing to get out of. As we head deeper into the summer months, our evaporation rates increase dramatically and this requires more frequent and soaking rains to avoid drought. If we continue to be dry, hotter weather can be expected and that only makes drought conditions worse. At this point, I'm not ready to say we are heading into a hot dry summer, but it is something to monitor as we go forward. 

Near-Term Forecast

This week will feature the first real run at 90 degrees in a long time. Areas in Central and Southern Ohio are likely to see several days in a row with highs in the low 90's while Northern Ohio remains in the 80's. Heat Index values will nudge up into the mid 90's for the southern 2/3 of the state as well. This is the first sign of real summer heat this year and it is important to remember to stay hydrated and limit your time outside during the peak heating times. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are most likely in young children and the elderly with this type of low grade heat. Our next chance of a widespread rain will come later this week and into the weekend. Next week also looks like it will stay on the warm side with highs in the upper 80's most days with frequent thunderstorm chances. Those who see repeat rainfall events could see localized flooding issues, but widespread flooding is not likely at this time. 

Thunderstorm Chances

The heat set-up that is going to be taking place next week is one that can develop thunderstorm complexes that move into our area. This is known as the ring of fire because complexes form on the rim of the heat and ride along it, thriving off of the fuel from the excessive heat. The southeast will likely be baking next week with some of the hottest weather in a coupe years and this could set us up for some severe weather. These events are difficult to forecast and often sneak up on forecasters, but it is something we will be monitoring very closely. If severe weather threatens next week, be sure to take it seriously and just stay up to date with your local forecasts. I will try to provide as much advanced warning as possible. For the most up to date information, follow me on twitter @JustinSolze. 

Here is some older information on the plains flooding situation. 

**I meant to post this a few weeks ago, but I got busy. Most of this information is old, but I still wanted to mention it.** 

Southern Plains Flooding

As I'm sure many of you have heard, the Southern Plains (Texas and Oklahoma in particular) have had amazing amounts of rainfall this month. This is a classic case of too much of a good thing! Texas and Oklahoma had been stuck in a 5 year long drought that was taking a huge toll on the area water supplies and agriculture industry. They have effectively ended that drought in a months time, with many areas in Northeast Texas and Southern Oklahoma seeing over a foot of rain and locally over two feet of rain! All of that water has to go somewhere and that resulted in catastrophic and and deadly flooding. Some rivers rose to their highest levels ever recorded and destroyed hundreds of homes in the process. One river in particular recorded a three hour period where it rose over 30 feet! You cannot prepare or protect against a flash flood of that magnitude and that is why some people unfortunately lost their lives. Another statistic out of this flooding that is absolutely amazing is that if you were to contain all of the rain that has fallen in the Houston area this month, you would have enough water to satisfy New York City's water needs for 7 YEARS. It's very difficult to put the amount of rainfall into perspective, but I think that does a good job of describing just how much rain Texas and Oklahoma have seen. The good news, now, is they are going to have a period to dry out over the next week or so, and this will help aid as the clean-up efforts continue. 

April Showers

Warm Week Ahead 

We are finally going to see an extended period of warm weather here in the State of Ohio. Highs all week will range from the upper 50's to mid 60's across the northern part of the State to the upper 60's to mid 70's across the south. Port Columbus has yet to hit 70 this year (the last 70 degree reading at CMH was in late October of last year). Many people will see their warmest weather to date this week.

Active Pattern

With the warm weather in spring comes the increased risk of rain. We will see a very active/wet pattern this week Statewide. Thunderstorms will be possible across Central and Southern Ohio Tuesday-Friday this week with mainly rain across the north. Severe storms could be a possibility later in the week and that will be something we have to monitor. This week could feature the largest tornado outbreak of the season for the Country as a whole.  A multi-day severe weather outbreak is forecast to impact the nations heartland and could make its way into the Ohio Valley by Thursday and Friday. Numerous tornadoes will likely occur with this set-up from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. Please stay tuned for updates and pay attention this week. 

Next Weekend and Beyond

We should begin to dry out by next weekend before another active pattern sets up for next week. The overall pattern for the month of April looks to be wet and warm through the end of the month. This could begin to be an issue for planting in the fields for farmers, and could have negative impacts on spring sports. However, it should be warmer than average and after the winter we had, that is OK to me! 

Critical Severe Weather Information

Overview

It has come to my attention that the meanings behind National Weather Service alerts aren't always fully understood. During severe weather season, it is extremely important that everyone properly understand the meaning behind the different alerts and the actions required when such alerts are issued. I am going to try my best to explain and simplify the most common alerts we will see this spring, summer and fall. 

Severe Thunderstorms

Definition of a Severe Thunderstorm--The National Weather Service has specific criteria for determining whether or not a storm is severe. Winds in excess of 58mph or greater and hail to 1 inch in diameter or larger classify a storm as severe. As long as one of these criteria are met, the storm will be considered severe. 

Watch

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH will be issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma when the atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather in and close to the watch area. These are usually issued several hours in advance of storms and often go into effect before any storms have even developed. They are designed to alert the public about a significantly elevated risk of severe thunderstorms, and that they should pay close attention to the weather as conditions could change rapidly. 

Summary--> Severe T-Storm Watches simply mean conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms. 

Actions Required--> When a watch is issued, you should monitor the weather very closely and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions. 

Warning

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING is issued by your local National Weather Service office. 

Here are a few Ohio cities and their NWS offices 

Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton = NWS in Wilmington

Cleveland, Toledo and Akron = NWS in Cleveland

Coshocton, New Philadelphia and Zanesville = NWS in Pittsburgh 

Lima and Defiance = NWS in Northern Indiana 

Athens and New Lexington = NWS in Charleston 

Each local office monitors their forecast area and will issue a severe thunderstorm warning if a storm enters their area that is producing severe wind or hail. These warnings are based off of radar data and/or storm reports from local law enforcement, storm spotters or the public. A warning means that the threat is occurring or highly likely. They are usually issued 20 minutes to about an hour before the storm hits, but the lead times can vary dramatically for each individual situation. The warnings are only issued for those who are in, or very close to, the track of the severe storm. If you visit the National Weather Service's website, which you should, you can see exactly who is in the alert during the severe weather. You should be seeking shelter as soon as a severe thunderstorm warning is issued and securing loose objects if time allows. You should move indoors and away from windows, or get into a vehicle and wait until the storm has passed. If you must wait it out in a vehicle, be sure it is not parked under a tree or power lines, as they could fall on the vehicle. If you are planning to do outdoor activities, you need to wait until there has been 30min since the last clap of thunder. Severe thunderstorms are capable of downing trees and power lines, damaging structures and producing large damaging hail. They can produce life-threatening situations if the proper precautions are not taken. 

Summary--> A Severe Thunderstorm Warning means damaging wind and/or large hail (>1" in diameter) is occurring or is highly likely, often within the hour. 

Actions Required--> You MUST heed the warning and seek shelter inside a sturdy building or vehicle. Stay away from windows and secure loose objects IF time allows. 

Tornadoes 

Watch

A TORNADO WATCH is issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. They, like the severe thunderstorm watch, are issued hours in advance and signify that conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather including tornadoes. Tornado watches include all the hazards possible in a severe thunderstorm watch, but add a heightened risk for tornado development. You should monitor the weather very closely when a tornado watch is issued because weather conditions can change quickly in those situations. 

Summary--> Tornado Watches mean conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather including tornadoes in and close to the watch area. 

Actions Required-->When a watch is issued, you should monitor the weather very closely and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions. 

Warning 

A TORNADO WARNING is issued by your local National Weather Service office, just like the severe thunderstorm warnings. These warnings rarely get issued more than 30 minutes in advance of the threat. When a tornado warning is issued, the tornado sirens will sound in the warning area. These warnings are based off of radar data and/or reports from local law enforcement, storm spotters and the public. It is NOT a guarantee, when a tornado warning is issued, that a tornado is on the ground. The warning is an indication, at the very least, that there is a significant threat for a tornado to develop. You must read and understand each individual tornado warning, as they will tell you if the threat is radar indicated or if there is a confirmed tornado on the ground. However, it is ALWAYS a good idea to take tornado warnings very seriously and move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. If you are caught outside, immediately move to the nearest substantial structure. If a building is not in the area, you have two last resort options. You can either stay in your car with your seat belt on and your head below the windows if possible, or get in a ditch and cover your head to protect yourself from flying debris. In most situations, it is becoming safer to remain in your car instead of getting in a ditch, because of the airbags, seat belt restraints and added protections from flying debris. I can not stress enough how important it is to always seek shelter during a tornado warning and to not become complacent. I know that tornado warnings are sometimes issued and a tornado never forms or misses the area that was warned. This can lead people to believe that the threat isn't as serious as it really is. Predicting when and where a tornado will form is an extremely difficult task and is being researched constantly, but until forecasts can be better improved, you must listen to the warnings issued by the National Weather Service to protect your own life! Hopefully we won't have to deal with a devastating tornado any time soon, but if we do, many more people will survive if the warning is taken seriously. They are not issued very often, so just take the time to protect yourself and your family the next time one is issued and be thankful that we were spared this time. 

Summary-->Tornado warnings are issued when a tornado is on the ground or could form at any time. When issued, there is a serious threat to life and property and it must be taken seriously at all times.

Actions Required--> Move indoors to an interior room on the lowest level of a sturdy building. Stay away from windows and put as many walls between yourself and the outside. These actions must be taken immediately as the warning time may be extremely limited. 

Flash Floods 

Warning 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING is issued by your local National Weather Service office. They indicate that very heavy rainfall has lead to the threat of flooding and rapid rises on creeks and streams. High water can appear very quickly during a flash flood and it is important to know if you are in a flood prone area. These warnings are particularly important if you are traveling because flooded roadways are extremely dangerous. The number one cause of weather related deaths in the United States is from flooding. You should never attempt to drive through water of an unknown depth, as only 1 foot of water can float a small car. It is also dangerous because you cannot be sure that the road has not been washed out by the flood waters. Driving through flood waters puts you, and those who have to rescue you, in danger. Avoid this all together by listening to the tip from the National Weather Service that states "turn around, don't drown". 

Summary--> Flash flood warnings are issued when there is an occurring or imminent threat of flooding. 

Actions Required--> If you live in a flood prone area, you would need to move to higher ground immediately to protect your life. If driving, remember turn around, don't drown! 

Hopefully this information is helpful to better understand the alerts issued by the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. Please take these alerts seriously as they are designed to protect you. The NWS meteorologists do their best to prevent issuing warnings and watches when they aren't warranted, but in this inexact science sometimes the forecasts are wrong. It is better to issue a warning and not have a tornado or severe weather than the other way around. Just respect the power of the weather and heed the warnings and we will all make it through severe weather season. 

Thanks for reading, and stay safe! 

More Winter Weather

Heavy Snow

Another snow storm will be impacting the Buckeye State once again! This time southern and eastern Ohio will be in the bullseye for heaviest snowfall. These areas will see 8-12" of snow through Thursday morning. This snow will likely start out as a heavy wet snow (like white concrete) that could weight down trees and power lines. It should transition to a lighter snow as temperatures fall into the 20's. The snowfall gradient will be sharp over a short distance, resulting in a difficult forecast for those living near I-71.

Flooding

Heavy rain will fall before this heavy snow and with a melting snow pack, flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas is likely. Watch for ponding on roadways and possible basement flooding issues.

Here is my current thinking on snow totals 

Another Winter Storm

Snow Accumulations 

Sunday will be the first day of March, which marks the beginning of meteorological spring, however, we will be dealing with another winter storm. Snow will overspread the region late tonight and continue into the afternoon Sunday. There may be a lull in the precipitation on Sunday, followed by another burst of snow. Total accumulations along and north of I-70 will range from 4-8" and 1-4" south of I-70. In Southern Ohio, rain will mix in at times during the afternoon which will cut down on snow totals. If the rain/snow line shifts north or south by ~25-50 miles, then you will need to adjust the snowfall forecasts accordingly.

Flooding Potential

There will be a storm system that makes its way into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will spike into the 40's and 50's and get soaked with heavy rain. The precipitation may start off as some wintry mix, but will quickly transition to rain with some isolated thunder even a possibility. A couple of inches of rain could fall across a large portion of the State and with a melting snow pack, flooding will be a concern. The ground is essentially frozen solid from our stretch of record setting cold and that means any rain that falls will be 100% run-off. Another factor will be possible ice jams on rivers and creeks as the water rises and breaks up the ice. Finally, storm drains could be clogged with snow and ice leading to localized flooding on roadways. This rain event will create a big mess in the area and could be very dangerous for people who live in flood prone areas. Stay up to date on the latest from that storm system. 

Great Lakes

The Great Lakes are currently over 86% ice covered and nearing the peak date from last year. In 2014, the Lakes peaked over 92% coverage on March 9, and marked the second highest ice cover ever recorded. With another week of very cold air over the Great Lakes, it is possible that we surpass last years max and make a run at the all-time record. During the second week of March, ice should slowly begin to diminish with more frequent warm periods. *There were reports of chunks of ice still floating on Lake Superior all the way into early June last year and it could be the same situation this year!!

Major Winter Storm

Winter Storm Update

The NWS in Wilmington and Pittsburgh have issued WINTER STORM WARNINGS for much of their forecast areas. Snowfall accumulations of 5-8" are likely near and along the I-70 corridor with lesser amounts to the far north and far south. Very light icing will also occur with the highest ice amounts in Southern Ohio. Sleet and freezing rain will mix in with the snow, at times, especially in Southern Ohio. The longer you stay completely snow, then obviously the more likely you are to see higher snow totals. Mixing with sleet can cut snow accumulations way down (it is my least favorite winter precipitation). Sleet accumulates very slowly and just makes a big mess. Some models suggest that we switch over to plain rain for a period on Saturday, but it will not last long and will taper off quickly. Any wet surfaces could refreeze on Sunday as temperatures fall back into the teens by Sunday evening. This is a very complicated forecast and minor shifts in the storm track should greatly impact the current forecast. Stay tuned for any updates as we get closer to this major winter storm.

Current Snow and Ice Forecast 

NWS in Wilmington, Cleveland and Charleston Alerts

PINK=WINTER STORM WARNINGS 

BLUE=WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES

Bitter Cold, Snow and More Bitter Cold

Record Setting Cold

Many records will fall tonight as temperatures dip well below zero. In Central Ohio, lows of -8 to -15 are likely with -20 possible in outlying areas. Southern Ohio will see lows -12 to -19 with locally -25, and Northern Ohio will be similar. These are just air temperatures, not the wind chills! Wind chills will be -20 to -30 Statewide by morning, which is why nearly all schools are canceling classes once again. At these temperatures frostbite can occur in 15-30 minutes. Be sure to stay inside as much as possible and take frequent breaks if you spend any time outside.

Snow

There is an increasing likelihood for a winter storm to impact the State starting late tomorrow night and last into the day on Saturday. The models are still trying to sort out the details and they are having a hard time dealing with low-level cold air. We have to potential to mix with sleet and freezing rain at times and that would significantly cut down on any snow accumulation. Where it stays all snow, 4-7" is possible, but any mixing would cut that back to 1-3". This will likely be a now-cast type of storm where we just have to monitor where the rain/snow line sets up, and go from there. Stay tuned for later forecasts and possible winter storm watches or warnings. I will issue a snowfall forecast some time tomorrow.

More Bitter Cold

After this weekend storm, the cold air will come back and stay. There are no signs of the pattern letting up as we head into the first days of March. Some models are continuing to forecast sub-zero lows all the way up to the morning of March 1st. That is a very long way off, but the fact that the models are being this extreme with the cold is astounding. It is also leading to expansive ice cover on the Great Lakes, as we have now surpassed where we were at this time last year. Over 85% of the lakes are now ice covered! This has implications down the road as well since the Great Lakes can rule our spring and summer weather. With colder than normal lakes, we can expect a cooler than normal spring and summer. I know that is not what you want to hear right now, but just remember, a cool summer can mean temperatures in the upper 70's or low 80's, PERFECT!! Now that you are thinking about spring and summer, don't look or step outside for a month, so you don't get disappointed!

Stay safe tomorrow in the severe cold and pay attention to the developing weekend storm threat.

Winter Storm

Southern Ohio

Confidence is very high at this point for a high impact winter storm for Southern Ohio. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of the southern counties from Hocking County to Clinton County and points south. Winter Storm Watches have also been issued for Perry and Morgan Counties. Winter Weather Advisories are out for areas just north of the warning counties as well.

Central Ohio (I-70 Corridor)

The further south you live relative to I-70, the more likely you are to get accumulating snow. Along I-70, 1-2" is possible, but a slight shift in the storm track would change that. A shift north of just 50 miles would give us a threat for some heavier snow, while a shift south would completely remove us from the any accumulations. It is still too early to say where the storm will actually track, so confidence is low for the I-70 corridor.

Current Alerts 

The pink areas are Winter Storm Warnings, purple/blue are Winter Weather Advisories and the dark blue are Winter Storm Watches.

Current Snowfall Forecast for Monday - Tuesday AM

Lots of Winter on the Way

Thursday-Sunday 

A clipper system with a potent cold front will swing through Ohio tomorrow morning bringing a drop in temperatures, gusty winds and snow squalls. Winds will gust up to 35mph and will result in wind chills down to minus 10 by the evening. Snow could accumulate up to 1 inch in the heavier snow squalls. These will be intense bursts of snow and wind that can quickly reduce visibilities and cause slick roads. Another brief coating to an inch of snow is possible on Saturday and will result in a bitterly cold Sunday morning. Wind chills could approach the dangerous category of approximately -30 by sunrise Sunday! You will want to really limit your time outside on Sunday and make sure you bring pets in as well.

Next Week

The models are indicating that a powerful storm system will develop and move across the country Monday-Wednesday. This will likely bring a swath of heavy snow to someone in the Eastern US, but the poor performance of the models in this time frame is creating forecasting headaches. The models have been all over the place with the location of the snow swath, ranging from Tennessee to Ohio. I will continue to watch the evolution of the models as they fine tune the location of the heaviest snowfall. It also appears that more cold air will arrive after the storm moves through with more sub-zero lows and wind chills.

The next 10 days will be quite active and could result in significant disruptions. More updates to come.

What Is Going On?

Forecast Bust

I would like to take a minute to discuss the busted forecast for this past snow event. This winter has proven to be an extremely difficult one to forecast due to inconsistencies in model forecasts. A couple of days before this storm hit, it had the heaviest axis of snow just south of I-70 through Ohio, but in reality the heaviest snow was centered along and just north of I-80 in far northern Ohio. There was about a 150 mile shift in the storm track and that is why many people south of a line form Bellefontaine to Mount Vernon saw very little accumulation. The forecast did verify for the northern counties where many people received nearly a foot of snow. Basically all this means is that this winter is proving why forecasting snowstorms is a very difficult task! That is why it is important to regularly check back with the forecast and get the latest information.

More Snow Chances

There are some model trends suggesting as much as 1-3" of snow could fall across much of the State Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but based on how this winter has been going, it is far from a sure thing. There is also some indication that a bigger storm could impact the area next Sunday. That is still very far out and is likely to change quite a bit as we get closer to that event. One thing that has not changed is the threat for brutal cold. It is possible that the coldest weather of the season will be here around Valentines Day.

Stay tuned for updates

*I am sorry I have not been as frequent with my updates recently, but I have been busy with school work and that comes first. I will do my best to keep you updated. If you need an update I highly recommend weather.gov for up to date weather information.

Snow Storm Update

Snow Amounts

The models are really backing off on snow totals in Central Ohio. I am going to be surprised if anyone in the I-70 corridor gets more than 3-4" of snow. As you move north toward Marion, totals will get closer to 8" and people from Tiffin all the way up to south Detroit could top 12". As you head south the snow will drop off rapidly as Circleville will struggle to get to 1-2". Points south of Circleville might only end up a trace to 1 inch.

Winds

The winds will crank up behind the system on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Wind gusts up to 35mph will occur and this will lead to some blowing and drifting snow in open areas that receive higher snow accumulations. Parts of NW Ohio could have near blizzard conditions at times as well. 

Temperatures

There will be a major drop in temperature overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Some people could drop by as much as 15-20 degrees in just a couple of hours. Wind chills will drop to the minus 5 to minus 10 range by Monday morning for most of the State. This will lead to a rapid freeze-up and could cause some more slick spots. 

Snow and Cold

Snowfall Chances

As I'm sure a lot you have heard, there is a potential for a sizable snow event Sunday into Monday. I have been monitoring the forecast model trends and they are trying to come up with a solution they can all agree on. The current thinking is at as much as 4-6", locally 8", could fall in an area 50 miles to either side of I-70 through Ohio. I am not very confident in this storm just yet, given the indecisiveness in the models lately. By tomorrow afternoon we will have a much better idea of the location of the snow and the amounts. Nonetheless, it is important to monitor later forecast as this has the potential to be our biggest storm of the winter to date with major impacts on the Monday morning commute.

Bitter Cold

As we head into February things are going to turn very cold with numerous days featuring overnight lows below zero and frequently experiencing sub-zero wind chills. Tuesday, Thursday and Friday mornings next week all have the potential to start off below zero.
The European model is just one model and these are relatively long range forecasts so the numbers it is forecasting should not be considered as the exact forecast, but they can show a trend. Currently it is spitting out some pretty extreme numbers with wind chills on each of the mornings I listed above bottoming out near minus 20-25 and could approach minus 30 by Friday morning. Again, this is NOT my forecast, it is simply to give you an idea of how cold some of the most reliable models think it could get. I will keep a close eye on all of this winter weather coming our way over the next week and beyond. If some of this verifies, many schools will likely have several days off to open February.

Snowfall Forecast

The NWS in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Wilmington have issued WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES for much of the day tomorrow. Those who are under the advisories can expect a widespread 3-5" with locally 6-8" possible. The axis of heaviest snow is still not 100% known, but confidence is growing. I will update the snowfall forecast if I have to and I will let you know if any more alerts are issued or upgraded. Go to weather.gov for details on the latest alerts for your area.

Weekend Clipper

Timing

An Alberta Clipper will move across the State on Sunday and last until early Monday morning.

Accumulations

The exact accumulations are still a bit uncertain, but as of now it appears that Central and Northern Ohio have the best chance at seeing 3"+ out of this clipper. The areas under the heaviest band of snow  band could see in excess of 5-6". This narrow corridor is very hard to forecast, but a better idea of where it sets up will become apparent later in the day on Saturday. According to the current forecasts, folks who live south of a line from Lima to Marion to Coshocton and north of a line from Dayton to Lancaster to Zanesville have the best chance at being in the heaviest band of snow. I will narrow down the accumulation forecasts tomorrow.

End of January and into February 

The pattern is showing signs of heading back to a very cold and rather snowy period. Sub-zero low temperatures and wind chills well below zero will be back on the table as we head into the beginning of February. The models are also pointing to the potential for frequent snow events. The details of these events is impossible to predict, but the overall pattern seems to be heading into a more active phase. Now, this winter has been very unpredictable and the models have seemed to preform quite poorly. Normally I would be confident in my forecast given what I am seeing form the models, but not this winter. More details will be available as we get closer to the period in question. Stay Tuned! 

More Winter Ahead

Temperatures

The bitter cold temperatures and wind chills continue with more sub-zero lows coming again tonight. Lows around Central Ohio will range from 0 to -10. Wind chills will be -10 to -20 across much of the State as well. As we head into the weekend temperatures will warm up as a storm system moves in, however, indications are that we head back into the brutal cold by mid-week next week with sub-zero temperatures and wind chills.

Snow?

As I mentioned above, a storm system will be moving through this weekend and early next week. The details on this storm are complicated as warm air will try to work its way in and try to bring some mixed wintry precipitation. The weather models have been all over the place with this storm as is usually the case when dealing with mixed precipitation. Currently the scenarios range from little to no snow accumulation with some freezing rain (ice) accumulations, all the way to a healthy snow event with up to 5-6". With such a wide range of possibilities it will be a couple of days before the details can be ironed out. This storm will come through on Sunday and Monday so we will have to keep an eye on it as we get closer.

I will update things as they become available

Winter Storm Update

Snowfall Forecast

This is an updated version of what I am thinking for the overnight snowfall. The heavier snow in Northeast Ohio will come from mainly lake-effect during the day Tuesday. The rest of the State will see an end to the snow by noon on Tuesday. 

The road crews will have a hard time keeping up with heavy snowfall rates and with temperatures in the teens salt becomes much less effective. I expect numerous school closings and delays across Central and Southern Ohio tomorrow. 

The Cold is Coming

This is the GFS forecast wind chills for Thursday morning.

These maps are courtesy of WeatherBELL Analytics

Temperatures this cold are dangerous and will likely lead to even more school closing and delays on Thursday morning. Dress in layers and cover as much skin as possible to stay warm and avoid frostbite. 

Check my twitter for frequent updates overnight and into the morning...@justinsolze 

Winter Storm Watch

Significant Snow Expected

The National Weather Services in Wilmington, Cleveland, and Northern Indiana have issued WINTER STORM WATCHES for Monday night into Tuesday morning. A general 4-6" is expected with locally 8" possible. This will lead to significant travel impacts on Tuesday morning and could lead to school closings and delays. Due to cold temperatures, the effectiveness of salt will be diminished so it will be more difficult to keep the roads clear.

Here are some pictures to give you an idea of where the heaviest snow is expected to fall. The dark blue counties are WINTER STORM WATCHES. These images and much more information can be found at weather.gov

Wilmington 

Cleveland

I will continue to update things as they develop and I will let you know when any warnings or advisories are issued.

Update On Brutal Cold

Cold and Snow This Week

Sunday-Tuesday

Temperatures will begin to fall dramatically through the day and into tonight. This morning temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 40's, but will fall into the mid to lower 10's by tomorrow morning. Winds will also be gusty during the day today with gusts around 30-40mph. We will also see the first sub-zero wind chills across the northern and western parts of Ohio tomorrow morning. Here is what the GFS model is forecasting for 7am Monday morning. These maps are courtesy of WeatherBELL Analytics and can be found at weatherbell.com.

Temperatures will not warm up much on Monday with highs struggling to get out of the teens. Monday night will feature an Alberta Clipper system that will bring some accumulating snow through Tuesday morning. These systems produce generally light snows that are fluffy in nature and often come with some breezy conditions. This clipper has the potential to drop a widespread 2-5" of snow across the northern two-thirds of the State. Here is my first call snowfall map for Monday night into Tuesday Morning. 

Wednesday-Friday

This period will be the coldest part of the week and will compare to the cold we saw last January. Wind Chills will approach minus 15 on Wednesday and minus 25 on Thursday. These wind chills can lead to frostbite in about 30 minutes. Be sure to dress in layers and cover as much skin as possible. If you have to spend an extended period of time outside, be sure to take frequent breaks to warm up. 

GFS forecast for Wednesday evening

GFS Thursday morning forecast

For those looking for a snow day, Thursday will be your best chance. However, some delays or closings are possible on Tuesday with the clipper system. 

Stay warm and enjoy the winter weather!

Brutal Cold Coming

Sugar Bowl Results

Ohio State-42 Alabama-35

Ok, back to the weather...

Freezing Rain and Rain

A storm system will move up from the south and bring a lot of moisture up into the area. The precipitation will start out as some freezing rain and sleet and could accumulate to about .1", but will melt off by noon. The rain could be moderate to heavy at times on Saturday with 1-2" possible. After the cold front moves through, temperatures will plummet about 40 degrees and change the precipitation over to some light snow showers or flurries.

Bitter Cold 

This storm will usher in the coldest air of the season. Monday will feature wind chills around 0-10 below zero with air temperatures in the teens. Wednesday and Thursday will feature the coldest air of the season and will be very similar to what we experienced last January. Some models are trying to paint wind chills as low as minus 25 in Central Ohio both Wednesday and Thursday morning. It is still quite early, but schools districts will need to pay close attention to the forecasts because that air will be dangerous for anyone who spends time outside. Wind Chills of that magnitude are exactly what we experienced last January when nearly all schools shut down for a couple of days. It is important to take this kind of cold seriously and to layer up. We have just finished a relatively warm December so this cold outbreak will feel even harsher. If we get some snow on the ground from a clipper system around midweek, then these temperatures could very well be colder than forecast. Bottom-line is this week will feature a bitterly cold arctic outbreak that will be dangerous to those spending time outdoors.

I will frequently update things during this developing situation. Stay warm and GO BUCKS!!!