What Now...?

Where We Have Been

After a November that ranked as a top 15 coldest November for the State of Ohio, December has been relatively benign. We have seen what is known as a "zonal flow" for the first part of the month and that helps to bring in air from the Pacific and give us clouds and about average temperatures. As of right now, December is averaging above normal rainfall (+0.54") and slightly below normal temperatures (-0.4) here in Central Ohio. We have seen just a trace of snow on one day this month compared to the 4.1" of snow in November. By this date last December, Columbus had already had 9" of snow! This weather pattern was expected, however, so do not worry. WINTER WILL COME!

Where We Are Going

The pattern is shaping up to be what looks like a very active end to the month. The forecast models have been showing this for several runs now. There is still a great amount of uncertainty going forward as each storm system will prove to have its own challenges. However, the models seem to agree that we will begin to get colder with an active storm track during the week of Christmas and continuing into January. This pattern change also fits with what was expected by the analog packages, which look at similar patterns in years past. This year is looking a lot like 2002 when we had a mild and calm December across much of the country, but a major snowstorm around Christmas was the start of a much colder and snowier pattern. I am not saying a snowstorm will hit on Christmas, but we will have to pay close attention to the weather over the coming weeks as we start to really ramp things up. A white Christmas is still on the table for many people across the United States, so don't give up hope! After a brief break from our early winter weather, things will turn much colder and snowier just in time for Christmas and New Years! 

If there is any type of winter weather threat, I will let you know as soon as I can. I will closely monitor the latest forecasts and update things accordingly. When we get a little closer, I will be able to more accurately depict who will see a white Christmas and I will also do a larger scale forecast for those of you traveling this holiday season. 

This is just my little soapbox reminder: a white Christmas isn't a necessity to celebrate Jesus' birth! :) 

MERRY CHRISTMAS