Storm Update

Very Complex Forecast 

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the amount of mixed precipitation in central Ohio. At the time, it appears that I need to adjust my snowfall forecast in central and southwest Ohio since more ice could mix in. There will be a tight gradient in snowfall with the highest totals north and west of interstate 71 and lesser amounts south and east. I think in Franklin county there will be a variety of precipitation types with Dublin seeing 6-9" of snow and .1" of ice, downtown Columbus should see 2-5" of snow and .15"-.25" of ice and down near Groveport ~3" of snow and .25-.35" of ice. All it takes is .25" of ice to down trees and power lines. 

Gahanna should see 5-7" of snow and around .2" of ice. 

The snow and ice amounts are highly dependant on the duration and intensity of mixed precipitation. The longer we stay all snow, then obviously we will see more snow and less ice and vise-versa. 

For areas in southern Ohio from Cincinnati to Chillicothe there are ICE STORM WARNINGS in effect for the potential for ice accumulations of 1/4"-1/2" and locally higher. This could cause longer term power outages if the ice accumulates this much. 

Areas from Dayton to Marysville to Delaware and points north, I expect 8-12" of snow with little to no ice accumulations. 

The snow will move in around 7pm and will come down very hard for a few hours. The onset of snow will quickly cover roads and make travel hazardous. I do expect many school closures for tomorrow due to the ice and snow accumulations. 

I will monitor the latest model forecasts and keep an eye on the storm as it developes. This will be a rapidly changing storm with very subtle yet important forecasting challenges. 

Next update will be around 4pm when the WINTER STORM WARNING goes into effect.