Active Wind Alerts

Wind Advisories and High Wind Watches

The National Weather Service offices in Pittsburgh, Northern Indiana, Charleston and Wilmington have issued WIND ADVISORIES for their entire service areas for wind gusts of 45-50mph. This includes the entire State of Ohio, with the exception of the NWS in Cleveland counties. The NWS in Cleveland has issued a HIGH WIND WATCH for wind gusts of 50-60mph.

All of Ohio will have the potential for wind damage to trees and power lines from the mid-morning hours into the evening on Monday.

I will continue to update things on this developing situation. It is POSSIBLE that High Wind Warnings get issued, and that would signify widespread damaging winds. I will let know as soon as things evolve.  

Here is an image of the current NWS alerts in the Ohio Valley Region. 

Windy and Wet

Sunday and Monday

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning will feature moderate to heavy rain. A widespread .5-1" amounts are expected across Ohio. As a powerful cold front crosses the region on Monday, winds will pick up during the afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service is currently thinking that gusts up to 45mph are possible and that wind headlines may be required. Some forecast models are suggesting that some isolated gusts upwards of 50-55mph are possible. Winds of this magnitude can lead to scattered power outages, tree damage and minor property damage. If you got a head start and got your Christmas decorations up, be sure to secure any light weight or loose items.

Criteria for wind headlines from the NWS in Wilmington Ohio...
Wind Advisory=Sustained winds of 31-39MPH (for one hour) or frequent gusts of 46-57MPH

High Wind Warning=Sustained wind of 40+MPH (for one hour) or frequent gusts of 58+MPH

Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day

As we move into the busiest travel week of the year, the weather becomes a hot topic. You may have already heard that SOME forecast models are hinting at the potential for an East Coast storm during the peak travel times. This is far from a sure thing and will need to be fine tuned as we get closer. If you are planning to travel in the Eastern States during the holiday, be sure to stay up to date on the latest information regarding this possible storm. Here in Ohio, we will turn wintry again just in time for Thanksgiving. Temperatures will dip back into the 30's and snow flurries/showers will be possible.


I will provide updates on this weeks storm as needed.

Have a HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Snowfall Verification

How Did I Do?

I have drawn an approximation of the actual snow totals from our first snow storm to compare them to my snowfall forecast. 

Here was my forecast issued on 11/14/14

 An approximation of actual snow totals 

Overall, the axis of heaviest snow shifted a few miles to the northwest putting the I-71 corridor in the middle of the 3-5" snow totals. Southeastern Ohio stayed mainly rain during the duration of the storm. For my first ever custom snow forecast, I think this was a success. That is pretty close from a few days out. What do you think? 

Winter Storm Update Part II

Where We Go From Here

The snow is starting to wind down and will tapper off to a few scattered snow showers by the afternoon. Many areas that were under winter weather alerts have received 2-5" of snow. This was a very heavy wet snow which has led to some scattered power outages and tree damage. As the snow moves off to the east, a blast of arctic air will move in and drop our temperatures down into the lower 20's and 10's by this evening. Gusty winds around 20-30mph will help to usher in this air mass and will lead to wind chills near and just below 0. By tomorrow morning, wind chills could be approaching minus 5-10 and Wednesday morning could have readings of minus 10 as well. This is going to be a real shock to the system and is very unusual for this early in the season. Our high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 10's tomorrow and that will set a record for a low maximum temperature. Bottom line, it is going to be cold and breezy. More tree damage and scattered power outages are possible given the gusty winds. Also, watch for roads to re-freeze this evening and continue to have slick spots tomorrow morning.



After the official snowfall reports come in, I will post a map of the snow totals and compare it to my forecast. 

STAY WARM!

Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alerts Have Been Issued 

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings for Central and Southwestern Ohio. The NWS in Cleveland has issued winter weather advisories for Northeastern Ohio. The NWS in Pittsburgh has also put out winter weather advisories for Eastern Ohio.

Here are images of the latest alerts that have been issued. The blue are WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES and the pink are WINTER STORM WARNINGS

NWS Cleveland

NWS Pittsburgh

NWS Wilmington

Timing and Amounts 

The timing on most of the alerts is from midnight Tonight through the early afternoon on Monday. The only reason Southwestern Ohio is under a warning is because they have a lower criteria for snowfall to warrant a warning. The heaviest snows will be centered along and just northwest of the I-71 corridor with 3-5" expected. Further north and west, about 1-3", and the far southeastern areas will likely see an inch or less since rain will mix in for the majority of the event.

Monday Morning Commute 

I have been pointing to the Monday AM commute for some time now, and it appears that the worst of the storm will significantly impact the drive to school and work. I will not be surprised to see some outlying districts issuing delays or even calling off school. In the bigger cities (Columbus, Cincinnati and Dayton) it is less likely that school will be called off given more resources to clear the streets. Regardless, this will be a significant snowfall and it will be made worse since it is the first one of the season. Remember that it is State law to have your headlights on when your windshield wipers are on, this helps other drivers see you better. Increase your following distance and decrease your speed. Just exercise common sense and we will get through this storm safely. Be safe tomorrow morning!!

After

After the storm moves out, we will have exceptionally cold weather. Tuesday will feature highs, Statewide, of 16-21 degrees! Those temperatures will threaten a lot of records and will allow for wind chills to remain in the single digits all day and even dip below zero at night. Depending on snow cover, lows could approach the lower single digits on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Wind chills could approach advisory criteria for a time early Wednesday morning as they approach minus 10!!! This is an exceedingly rare event for November and will likely set many records for cold.

I will continue to update things as they become available

Snow Storm Update

November Snow Storm

Timing

The main impacts across the Buckeye State will begin late Sunday night and continue until about noon on Monday. 

Impacts

The Monday morning commute will likely be a slow one as roads could become snow covered and slick. And again, depending on the consistency of the snow, some tree limbs could break if enough snow accumulates on the leaves (bradford pear trees are basically the only trees with leaves still on them here in Central Ohio). This could also have an economic impact on city and state budgets as we get off to another early start to winter. 

Accumulations

I do not have any changes to my snowfall forecast. My goal in issuing snowfall maps is to change them as little as possible. I will try not to issue any accumulation forecasts until I am confident enough to stand by them. I do not believe that it is helpful or fair to constantly change a snowfall forecast and then say I was right after the fifth adjustment. If I feel that I have made a significant error, then I will adjust the maps, otherwise I will let the storm play out and see how close I am. 

As always, I will continue to provide updates on any changes to the forecast and let you know as soon as any alerts are issued. 

Snowfall Forecast

Snowfall Forecast Map

This is my current snowfall forecast for the event coming Sunday night into Monday morning. The morning commute will likely be slow with the first significant snow of the season. I expect at least a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for this event and I will let you know as soon as they come out. 

If the snow is a heavy wet snow, then any trees that still have leaves could experience some stress and may lose some limbs. However, this would only be a concern in areas that receive approximately 3"+ of wet snow.

I will continue to update things as they become available.

Weekend Snowfall Update

The Snow is Coming

Confidence is growing in regards to a measurable snowfall this weekend. The amount of snow is still a bit uncertain, but I have put together a map of the probabilities for certain areas to receive at least an inch or more.

The timing on the heaviest snow will be Sunday night into Monday morning. I still think it would be a good idea to prepare for a slower morning commute on Monday.

I am going to try something new this year for winter snowfall forecasts. I will issue a storm total forecast map before each snow event and then I'll post a map of what actually happens after the storm to compare my forecasts to the actual outcome. I hope this is helpful and it can help to hold me accountable when I make mistakes to improve my accuracy in the future. 

I will likely issue my first ever snowfall forecast map later tonight. 

Snow Chances Are Increasing

Potentially Snowy Weekend

The cold temperatures have arrived and I am now focusing my attention towards a system that could bring us some snow accumulation.

 Here is the latest information...

• As of tonight, areas along and east of I-71 stand the best chance to see measurable snowfall this weekend. 
• Areas along and south of the Ohio River could change over to or mix with rain for a time which would cut down on any snow totals. 
• Models are still varying on the intensity of the storm which will have large implications on our weather. If the storm is stronger or tracks just 50-100 miles east or west of its current forecast track, then snow amounts could go up or down accordingly.
• At this time I am seeing enough model agreement to say that snow is a good bet, but it is still too early to say just how much will fall. 
• The timing on the heaviest snow is currently forecast for Sunday evening into the overnight hours and into early Monday morning. There could also be a brief period of lighter snow on Saturday afternoon and evening, but little to no accumulation is expected with that. 

Tomorrow I will have a better idea as to how much snow will fall and a better idea on timing. As of now, start considering allowing more time to get to school and work for Monday morning because we all know how the first snow of the season goes (it always seems to catch drivers off guard). I will update you tomorrow on the new developments regarding our first snow event of the season. 

Take care and embrace the winter weather, it's not going anywhere anytime soon! 

Brutal Cold IS Coming

Who's Ready for Winter?!?

Timing

An arctic cold front will cross the Buckeye State tomorrow evening/night, bringing with it some breezy conditions and some rain showers. Wednesday will have highs in the lower 40's, but Thursday and Friday will have highs only making it into the mid to upper 30's.

There may be a brief break in the worst cold on Saturday with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's, but another storm will likely move through some time late in the weekend or early in the week that will drop temperatures back even further to the lower 30's for highs! During the entire period, lows will be in the 20's and next week could feature lows into the 10's.

Snow Chances

The models are still flipping back and forth on different ideas for snowfall. It is still way too early to pin down any possible accumulations given the great deal of uncertainty regarding the strength and track of any storm that does develop. That being said, the models are consistent in bringing some snowfall over the next 10 days so we will have to wait and see how that all plays out.

Ohio State vs. Minnesota 

If you plan to travel up to Minneapolis this weekend to watch the Buckeyes play, be prepared for bitterly cold weather. Temperatures will start out in the upper single digits to around 10 degrees in the morning on Saturday, and rise to the mid 10's by kickoff (it is an 11am local time kickoff). By the end of the game, temperatures will only rise to the lower 20's. The entire game will have wind chills in the lower single digits and even below zero for the first half of the game. The fans and players need to prepare for some dangerously cold air that we have not seen for several months.

I will continue to update you on this arctic blast as it evolves.

How Low Can We Go?

Fall Did Not Stick Around For Long!

Cold Week Ahead

Here in the Buckeye State, our arctic invasion gets underway Tuesday night next week. A powerful cold front will cross Ohio and drop temperatures to below freezing by Wednesday morning. This front will be an all rain event with a few flurries possibly behind it, but nothing substantial in terms of snow. The big story will be the brutally cold weather for early to mid November. Our high temperatures in Central Ohio will stay in the 30's for several days and drop into the low 20's each night. This will lead to a several day stretch of 15-25 degrees below normal temperatures. Highs in the upper 30's are average for the middle of January here in Central Ohio. The bulk of next week will certainly feel like winter!!

Snow Chances

There are not any guarantees when it comes to snowfall at this point. Many models are hinting at the possibility during the week of the 16th. That is still too far out to definitively say who will see snow and how much. With the amount of cold that will be in place, it is possible that snow could make an appearance, but that will have to be ironed out in the days to come. Folks that live in the lake-effect snow belts will see some heavy snow totals over 6" off of Lake Erie and 1-3 feet could fall in Michigan's lake-effect snow belts. The lake-effect snow, as always, will be localized and vary greatly over short distances.

Week of Nov. 16-22

The models are hinting at another reinforcing shot of cold air during this time period. A model forecast from this far out is liable to change frequently, but they have been fairly consistent in insisting on more cold air. To give you an idea of how cold they think we will get, the GFS (American Model) shows wind chills -5 to 5 degrees on a couple of mornings and the European model actually agrees. I am NOT saying that this will happen, but that is an extreme scenario for the models to be printing out at this time of year. As we get closer to that time I will be able to better forecast just how cold it will be. What I can say with confidence right now is, November will be extremely cold!

I will continue to update you on this cold outbreak and keep you up to date on any possible pre-thanksgiving snow chances!

Brutal Cold Outbreak

Thursday 11/6 - Tuesday 11/11

We will have several storm systems moving through the area over the next several days. Each will bring some light rain with the potential for flurries on the tail end of the precipitation. Temperatures will bump up ahead of the storms and drop behind each front. We will essentially alternate between 50's and 40's every other day. 

Winter?

By the middle of next week the entire Great Lakes and Northeast regions will be feeling the chill. The potential exists for record challenging cold to overspread the area starting on Wednesday the 12th and could last for several days. In early to mid November, we should be in the middle 50's for high temperatures, but this arctic outbreak will feature highs in the mid to upper 30's! Lows will also drop into the lower 20's several nights in a row and some outlying areas and parts of northern Ohio could even see some 10's! This cold outbreak will be significant and give us an early start to winter. At this time there are not any significant snow events showing up in the models, but I will update you if that changes. The classic lake-effect areas to the south and east of the Great Lakes could see some impressive snow totals from what should be a classic lake-effect set-up. 

This is just a heads-up for next weeks frigid air and I will provide more details in the days to come.