Down But Not Out

Good News

The overnight severe threat does not look to be anything widespread. An isolated strong to severe cell cannot be ruled out, however, a widespread damaging wind event does not appear to be developing. Lightning and heavy rain will be the biggest impacts with the thunderstorms tonight.

Bad News

Even with the lack of severe weather tonight, Sunday will still be an extremely unstable day. All modes of severe weather are on the table for tomorrow. So, tonight could be a little rocky, but tomorrow could turn out to be very dangerous.

Now What?

First Round of Storms Moving Out!

After our afternoon storms, I am keeping an eye on storms out in Illinois. This evening, Illinois and Indiana have an air mass that is extremely unstable and full of energy for thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center still says that confidence is low, in terms of how the storms will develop this evening and overnight. It is still possible that a line of storms develop and move across Indiana and into Ohio overnight with damaging winds and heavy rain.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA UNTIL 6PM ON SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PINK IS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND THE GREEN IS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. COLUMBUS IS INCLUDED IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

Severe Weather Update

Severe Weather Outlook Update

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new day 2 outlook and it expanded the MODERATE RISK are to include much of eastern and southern Ohio including the Columbus Metro area and the immediate surrounding counties. They are also continuing to discus the possibility of supercell thunderstorms with the potential to produce tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. They also continue to state that a couple intense tornadoes are possible. An intense tornado is generally and EF-2 or greater strength. This is a fairly rare outbreak for the month of July and it should not be taken lightly. This storm system is very similar to a spring storm in many ways, so PAY ATTENTION. 

Here is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Sunday. 

As always, I will update you on things as they develop. Have a safety plan in place should you need to seek shelter at any point tomorrow or even tonight. Stay Safe!

Dangerous Saturday Night and Sunday

Tonight 

The forecast for today is still relatively unchanged with the main threat for severe storms arriving late tonight with just a few isolated pop up storms during the afternoon. The overnight threat has the potential to produce widespread damaging winds across the area. Areas south of I-70 have the highest threat of severe weather. If a squall line developed and moves across, winds in excess of 60-80mph are possible along with isolated spin-up tornadoes along the leading edge of the line. Hail will not be as much of a threat tonight.

Sunday

After morning storms the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize with the heating of the day and lead to very volatile weather conditions. Super cell thunderstorms are possible on Sunday with a risk of very large hail and tornadoes. Eastern and southern Ohio have the highest risk again, however, the entire state has some level of risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is also mentioning the possibility of a few strong tornadoes across the area. Tomorrow is not a day to let your guard down, take the weather very seriously on Sunday and have a plan in place if you need to seek shelter. The cold front will be moving into a very unstable air mass and has the potential to fire up some very strong storms that will have life threatening impacts. Stay tuned for updates and as always, have a way to get warnings from the national weather service.

I will try to update things again this afternoon and evening when a new forecast is issued. 

Weekend Severe Threat

Overview

There will be multiple chances for thunderstorms this weekend. A risk of severe weather, including large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. In addition heavy rain and lightning are always a threat with any thunderstorm that develops. The peak times for severe thunderstorms are still a bit uncertain, however, it appears that Saturday night into Sunday morning and then again on Sunday afternoon and evening will be the most volatile times.

Round 1 (Saturday into early Sunday)

Saturday will be a hot and steamy day with a warm front crossing the region in the early afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms are possible with that front and during the day. A line of storms is expected to develop out in Iowa and Illinois and move east. If this line can hold together it would arrive late Saturday and early Sunday morning. The main threats with this round of storms will be widespread damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Round 2 (Sunday afternoon and evening)

The severe risk on Sunday will largely depend on how much sun we get after the morning storms. More sun= more energy and a higher possibility of storms. If the instability is great enough on Sunday afternoon, a threat for large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will exist. The cold front that will roll through will be very powerful and has to potential to spark widespread severe weather on Sunday. PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND LISTEN TO LOCAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

I will update things as they progress.

Our Roller Coaster Pattern Continues

What a Pattern

This summer has already been a series of temperature swings with brief hot spells followed by prolonged cool downs. As we start the final weeks of July, the pattern will hold with a few hot days followed by much below normal temperatures. After every warm period will come a chance of storms as the cold fronts move through to knock out the heat.

This Week

The first of these cold fronts will come on Wednesday. Tuesday will feature highs in the low 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's to possibly 100 degrees. Wednesday will be a wet day with the potential for severe storms and heavy rains. Thursday will be the first of the cool days with highs only in the 70's when our normal highs should be in mid to upper 80's. Highs will remain below normal through at least Monday. The European model is suggesting a significant cold spell sometime next week, so we will have to watch for further information on that forecast.

Climate Change? 

Now I'm not going to claim that I know all the answers, because I don't, but I would like to challenge everyone to use common sense when it comes to what the media reports about "climate change". If one just takes a look at the information they are being told, holes in the data can be found everywhere. An example of this is NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) global temperature data.

As you can clearly see, BOTH of the poles, central Africa, areas north of Japan, northeast of Australia and a large chunk of the southern Pacific Ocean are missing data all together!!! Also, notice the ridiculously low resolution of the map. This is 2014, we have temperature data far more accurate than what is displayed here and it is all to skew the look of the global temperatures. I also find it interesting that the poles are conveniently left out when they are both experiencing large amounts of sea ice and far below normal temperatures.  

This image is courtesy of meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue.

As you can clearly see, much higher resolution maps are available and can provide far more accurate and true representations of the global temperatures. Now, the map from Dr. Maue is only for the month of June, while the NOAA map is for January 2014-June 2014. I wanted to show everyone that the technology does exist and NOAA seems to be intentionally skewing their data to support political agendas. Examples of skewed data, such as this, can be found all over the place and I want to bring it to your attention. 

Once again, I want to stress that I do not claim to know everything, but when you hear about "climate change" I would ask that everyone take a minute to think about what is being said and to not be afraid to question the "facts". 

My rant is over and I hope that I have at least provided you with some information you didn't know before. 

Thanks for reading!!