Broad Updates
Dry Conditions
Even though we had some rain earlier this month, many areas are still running below normal on rainfall for the month and year. Southern Ohio seems to be fairing the worst, with many areas now considered to be "abnormally dry" by the National Drought Monitor. Being that it is early June, it's not too much of a concern and we are not that far behind. However, if this continues, it can be a difficult thing to get out of. As we head deeper into the summer months, our evaporation rates increase dramatically and this requires more frequent and soaking rains to avoid drought. If we continue to be dry, hotter weather can be expected and that only makes drought conditions worse. At this point, I'm not ready to say we are heading into a hot dry summer, but it is something to monitor as we go forward.
Near-Term Forecast
This week will feature the first real run at 90 degrees in a long time. Areas in Central and Southern Ohio are likely to see several days in a row with highs in the low 90's while Northern Ohio remains in the 80's. Heat Index values will nudge up into the mid 90's for the southern 2/3 of the state as well. This is the first sign of real summer heat this year and it is important to remember to stay hydrated and limit your time outside during the peak heating times. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are most likely in young children and the elderly with this type of low grade heat. Our next chance of a widespread rain will come later this week and into the weekend. Next week also looks like it will stay on the warm side with highs in the upper 80's most days with frequent thunderstorm chances. Those who see repeat rainfall events could see localized flooding issues, but widespread flooding is not likely at this time.
Thunderstorm Chances
The heat set-up that is going to be taking place next week is one that can develop thunderstorm complexes that move into our area. This is known as the ring of fire because complexes form on the rim of the heat and ride along it, thriving off of the fuel from the excessive heat. The southeast will likely be baking next week with some of the hottest weather in a coupe years and this could set us up for some severe weather. These events are difficult to forecast and often sneak up on forecasters, but it is something we will be monitoring very closely. If severe weather threatens next week, be sure to take it seriously and just stay up to date with your local forecasts. I will try to provide as much advanced warning as possible. For the most up to date information, follow me on twitter @JustinSolze.
Here is some older information on the plains flooding situation.
**I meant to post this a few weeks ago, but I got busy. Most of this information is old, but I still wanted to mention it.**
Southern Plains Flooding
As I'm sure many of you have heard, the Southern Plains (Texas and Oklahoma in particular) have had amazing amounts of rainfall this month. This is a classic case of too much of a good thing! Texas and Oklahoma had been stuck in a 5 year long drought that was taking a huge toll on the area water supplies and agriculture industry. They have effectively ended that drought in a months time, with many areas in Northeast Texas and Southern Oklahoma seeing over a foot of rain and locally over two feet of rain! All of that water has to go somewhere and that resulted in catastrophic and and deadly flooding. Some rivers rose to their highest levels ever recorded and destroyed hundreds of homes in the process. One river in particular recorded a three hour period where it rose over 30 feet! You cannot prepare or protect against a flash flood of that magnitude and that is why some people unfortunately lost their lives. Another statistic out of this flooding that is absolutely amazing is that if you were to contain all of the rain that has fallen in the Houston area this month, you would have enough water to satisfy New York City's water needs for 7 YEARS. It's very difficult to put the amount of rainfall into perspective, but I think that does a good job of describing just how much rain Texas and Oklahoma have seen. The good news, now, is they are going to have a period to dry out over the next week or so, and this will help aid as the clean-up efforts continue.
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