First Frost and Winter Thoughts

Frosty Weekend

Here in the Buckeye State we have seen our first widespread frost and freeze conditions this weekend, and we will see two more nights of lows below freezing statewide. These temperatures should end the growing season for the vast majority of the area. This is great news for allergy sufferers as an end to the growing season would also wipe out all outdoor allergens. A hard freeze is not good news, however, for our fall colors. After lows in the 20's, leaves should begin to rapidly fall off of many trees before they get the chance to change color. We are a couple of weeks ahead of where we were last year in terms of our first 32 degree temperature.

Some folks in northeastern Ohio will indeed see some snowflakes today. Some graupel (the most misunderstood form of precipitation) is also possible where instability showers pop up.

Winter Thoughts

The upcoming winter will be an interesting case study for years to come. We are currently seeing an El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and that is influencing a large number of winter forecasts this year. Many meteorologists are comparing this El Niño to the one in 1997 (the last one that was as strong as the one we are currently seeing). There are a few problems with this direct comparison. First, the center of the warmest waters in the Pacific are much farther west compared to 1997. Second, there is a massive warm pool in the northern Pacific, along the west coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. This was nonexistent is 1997. In fact, it was the opposite in 1997! The warm water in the Gulf of Alaska has been in place for several years now. It has had a major impact on our winter weather here in the United States. With warm water in the northern Pacific Ocean, it allows a ridge to be pumped up out  west, thus aiding in more troughs downstream in the east. Basically, this signal points toward warmer weather out west and colder east. If we were in a neutral phase in the Pacific, then that would be a fairly straight forward forecast, but the El Niño is the wild card right now. With it being centered farther west, you would also expect a colder than normal winter across the Eastern US. The reason this winter is so difficult to forecast, is because El Niño's can often deliver the Ohio Valley a warm and dry season. Many forecasters are jumping on that one trend and running with it. I have issues with that plan since all El Niño's are not created equal, and not all result in warm dry winters.

Final Thoughts: I'm trying to wrap it up for you ;) I have spent a lot of time researching the current pattern and major seasonal drivers and have come up with what I expect to see this winter. I am expecting us to have yet another colder and snowier than average winter. This forecast is based on an active southern jet thanks to El Niño, coupled with the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska, which should help force colder air down into the Eastern United States. 

***I use the term "forecast" loosely here. This is more of a guidance prediction and not a true forecast since I am not giving specific numbers that can be verified. I am simply stating that I think we will end the winter with, overall, below average temperatures and above normal snowfall. (snowfall average in Columbus, OH is ~28 inches)***


Thanks for reading and enjoy the brief November preview. Also, check out the "Scarlet and Gray Campus Forecasting Team" on Facebook and twitter for up to date forecasts for central Ohio!