Thursday, February 19, 2015

Bitter Cold, Snow and More Bitter Cold

Record Setting Cold

Many records will fall tonight as temperatures dip well below zero. In Central Ohio, lows of -8 to -15 are likely with -20 possible in outlying areas. Southern Ohio will see lows -12 to -19 with locally -25, and Northern Ohio will be similar. These are just air temperatures, not the wind chills! Wind chills will be -20 to -30 Statewide by morning, which is why nearly all schools are canceling classes once again. At these temperatures frostbite can occur in 15-30 minutes. Be sure to stay inside as much as possible and take frequent breaks if you spend any time outside.

Snow

There is an increasing likelihood for a winter storm to impact the State starting late tomorrow night and last into the day on Saturday. The models are still trying to sort out the details and they are having a hard time dealing with low-level cold air. We have to potential to mix with sleet and freezing rain at times and that would significantly cut down on any snow accumulation. Where it stays all snow, 4-7" is possible, but any mixing would cut that back to 1-3". This will likely be a now-cast type of storm where we just have to monitor where the rain/snow line sets up, and go from there. Stay tuned for later forecasts and possible winter storm watches or warnings. I will issue a snowfall forecast some time tomorrow.

More Bitter Cold

After this weekend storm, the cold air will come back and stay. There are no signs of the pattern letting up as we head into the first days of March. Some models are continuing to forecast sub-zero lows all the way up to the morning of March 1st. That is a very long way off, but the fact that the models are being this extreme with the cold is astounding. It is also leading to expansive ice cover on the Great Lakes, as we have now surpassed where we were at this time last year. Over 85% of the lakes are now ice covered! This has implications down the road as well since the Great Lakes can rule our spring and summer weather. With colder than normal lakes, we can expect a cooler than normal spring and summer. I know that is not what you want to hear right now, but just remember, a cool summer can mean temperatures in the upper 70's or low 80's, PERFECT!! Now that you are thinking about spring and summer, don't look or step outside for a month, so you don't get disappointed!

Stay safe tomorrow in the severe cold and pay attention to the developing weekend storm threat.


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